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Relief Rally or Bull Trap? Why This Analyst Says XRP Is Heading Below $1

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A chart analyst is warning that XRP’s recent bounce may be giving traders false confidence and has argued that the token is still in a long-term downtrend despite recovering from its recent lows.

His view challenges a growing group of traders calling for a breakout, with the next few weeks likely to determine whether the world’s sixth-largest cryptocurrency can build a stronger base or slip below $1.

Weekly Chart Still Points to Resistance

In a series of posts on X, XRP watcher ChartNerd said that traders should continue respecting the asset’s long-term trend rather than assuming a small recovery has changed the market structure.

He pointed out that bears have been in control since a 20-week and 50-week exponential moving average (EMA) death cross formed in January 2026. Further, he argued that a relief in May that stalled at the 20-week EMA before XRP fell from about $1.35 to near $1.00 confirmed that the moving average is still acting as resistance.

According to him, even if XRP rallies toward $1.29 or as high as $1.60, people should treat those levels as heavy resistance unless the price can move above them convincingly. The analyst added that in case the Ripple token hits $1.60 in late July or early August, it would strengthen the case that the recent move near $1.00 marked a local bottom.

However, if the asset doesn’t reach the 20-week EMA around $1.29 or gets rejected there, then “the drop below $1 could come sooner than expected.”

ChartNerd also pushed back against claims circulating on social media that XRP has already broken out of its downtrend dating back to July 2025. Responding to a bullish post from pseudonymous analyst Bird, who suggested that an explosive candle was due at any moment, he wrote that XRP was still inside its wedge pattern and below descending resistance.

He was equally dismissive of traders celebrating the asset’s latest move up and sarcastically questioned whether such a modest rise meant that XRP was now heading “vertical to $100 before EOY.” In another post, the market watcher argued that many of the accounts calling for a breakout today had made almost the same predictions when the token was trading around $2.40 in January, before the price eventually dropped to $1.00.

Mixed Signals Continue for XRP

XRP was trading at around $1.13 at the time of writing, up nearly 4% in the last 24 hours. It has also gained almost 6% over the past week but is still about 2% lower than where it was a month ago.

According to data from CoinGecko, the coin’s latest trading range has been between $1.08 and $1.14, showing that the price has yet to break decisively in either direction.

ChartNerd believes the charts are telling a simple story, which is that until XRP breaks above resistance levels that have contained the market for months, any rally should be looked at with caution rather than treated as confirmation that the downtrend has ended.

Still, there are quite a few beating the bullish drum, including EGRAG CRYPTO, who recently claimed that the asset could eventually move toward a $1 trillion market cap if historical patterns repeat. However, such a move would need much stronger market conditions and far greater investor demand than exists currently.

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