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Major Bitcoin Demand Drop Sparks Debate Over Cycle Bottom Formation

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Bitcoin (BTC) has held above $62,000 on Thursday after a modest 2.3% surge in the last 24 hours. Amid increased investor anxiety, a new analysis suggests that Bitcoin may be moving closer to a potential bottom.

According to the latest CryptoQuant Weekly Report, the asset is currently trading a little over 15% above its Realized Price of $53,600, a level that, in previous market cycles, has often been associated with the formation of major market bottoms.

Mixed Signals

However, current demand conditions remain weak across the market. For instance, “Total Bitcoin,” measured by combining speculative perpetual futures trading and apparent spot buying, declined by around 652,000 BTC over the past week, the largest weekly contraction since January 2022.

At the same time, ETF demand growth has fallen to its lowest level on record, which essentially means that institutional buying, a major driver in the current cycle, is slowing down.

Market cycle analyst Benjamin Cowen has also pointed out that major bottoms are typically confirmed only after key indicators cross and not beforehand, meaning the process can take time. This is in line with CryptoQuant’s view that Bitcoin may be entering a value zone, but a confirmed bottom has not yet formed.

There is still limited panic selling in the market, as on-chain data also shows that realized losses remain well below levels seen in earlier capitulation phases.

However, not all analysts agree that Bitcoin is approaching a bottom, with some expecting further downside ahead. Doctor Profit, for one, recently said that Bitcoin has entered Stage 5 of his six-stage bear market model, which he describes as a period of strong emotional pressure in the market. He warned that thinking the worst is already over is a mistake seen in past cycles, where traders became optimistic too early before another major fall.

According to the analyst, Bitcoin could still fall to the $40,000 to $48,000 range. He called this range the “Confirmed BlackRock Bottom,” while linking it to the price level where BlackRock launched its spot Bitcoin ETF in early 2024.

Capital Outflows

Separate blockchain metrics also point to continued weakness. Another analyst, Axel Adler Jr., flagged ongoing signs of capital outflows and loss realization in the Bitcoin network. He found that Bitcoin’s Realized Cap 30D Change has dropped to -1.1%. The outflows have reached this level for the first time since mid-March.

He noted that Realized Cap has fallen by about $12 billion from its mid-May peak of $1.087 trillion to $1.075 trillion, and the pace of decline has accelerated in recent days. During the same period, Bitcoin also saw a sharp price drop, while adjusted SOPR has remained below 1.0 for 13 consecutive days, which indicates continued selling at a loss and no clear recovery in on-chain profitability.

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