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First Time in History: Key Metric Suggests Bitcoin Could be Poised for an Explosive Move

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The primary cryptocurrency seems to be sitting at a crossroads, with one important indicator signaling it could be on the verge of a major move.

Many analysts believe an uptrend is the more likely scenario, while the renewed interest from institutional investors supports that outlook.

Big Action on the Way?

Earlier this week, the analyst Cantonese Cat noted that Bitcoin’s monthly Bollinger Bands have registered their biggest squeeze ever. The indicator, created by John Bollinger, consists of a moving average with an upper and lower band that expand and contract based on market turbulence.

When these channels squeeze, it means volatility has dropped to unusually low levels – a setup that often precedes a major move, even though the direction (up or down) remains unknown.

It is important to note that in previous cases, tightening the bands has indeed been followed by significant price swings. Such a development was observed at the start of October last year when BTC was trading at around $120,000. Shortly after, the valuation spiked to a new all-time high above $126,000 and then experienced a massive correction.

Numerous analysts believe the leading cryptocurrency, currently trading around $78,400, is more likely to head north in the short term. X user CRYPTOWZRD, for instance, envisioned a substantial ascent in the event of a breakout above $79,200.

For his part, Ted made a rather cautious prediction, claiming that the asset could see a sharp dump if it breaks the key $76,000 support level.

The Entirely Bullish Factors

While tightening the Bollinger bands cannot be automatically labeled as an optimistic sign for the asset, the recent inflows into spot BTC ETFs entirely favor the bulls.

Data show that these products have seen an 8-day consecutive green streak: something last observed in October 2025. Such consistent demand signals a strong institutional appetite, reducing available supply in the market because it requires ETF issuers to back their clients’ shares with real BTC.

The shrinking amount of coins stored on crypto exchanges is also worth monitoring. Just several hours ago, the figure tumbled to a nearly seven-year low of around 2.6 million, suggesting that investors continue to abandon centralized platforms and shift towards self-custody methods. This, in turn, reduces immediate selling pressure.

BTC Exchange Reserve
BTC Exchange Reserve, Source: CryptoQuant

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