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Ethereum Price Analysis: ETH Faces a Crucial Test After Latest Rebound

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Ethereum has staged a notable recovery after defending its recent lows, with buyers gradually rebuilding momentum. While the higher time frames remain constrained beneath major resistance, the lower time frame structure has improved, and on-chain activity appears to be stabilizing following months of cooling network participation.

Ethereum Price Analysis: The Daily Chart

On the daily chart, it is evident that ETH continues to trade within a broader bearish structure despite its recent rebound. The asset remains inside the descending channel that has guided the market lower for several months, while both the 100-day and 200-day moving averages continue to slope downward above the current price, which reinforces the fact that the dominant trend is bearish.

Following the sharp decline toward the $1.5K demand zone, buyers stepped in aggressively, triggering a relief rally back toward the key resistance around $1.8K. This area is particularly important as it coincides with the descending channel’s upper trendline, making it a significant confluence resistance.

The RSI has recovered above the midline after previously entering oversold territory, suggesting bullish momentum has improved. However, the indicator has yet to reach overbought conditions, leaving room for additional upside if resistance is broken.

A decisive daily close above the $1.8K resistance could expose the next supply zone around $2.0K to $2.2K, where previous support has turned into resistance. Conversely, rejection from the current area would likely shift attention back toward the $1.5K support, with a loss of that level increasing the probability of another move toward much lower targets.

ETH/USDT 4-Hour Chart

The 4-hour frame presents a more constructive picture. Ethereum has established a clear higher low following its breakout from the recent consolidation range above $1.5k, which suggests that buyers have regained short-term control.

The highlighted higher low around the $1.75K region has so far been confirmed, indicating improving market structure. The price is now approaching the $1.8K to $1.85K resistance area, which has capped previous recovery attempts in recent weeks.

Momentum has also strengthened, with the RSI climbing back above the neutral 50 level after cooling from earlier highs. This suggests buying pressure remains intact, although resistance overhead could still trigger temporary consolidation.

As long as ETH continues holding above the $1.7K higher-low region, the short-term bullish structure remains valid. A successful breakout above $1.85K would strengthen the case for an extension toward the $2.K to $2.2K supply zone. Failure to maintain the higher low, however, would invalidate the recent recovery structure and shift focus back toward the $1.64K order block, and even the $1.5k critical rebound zone.

On-Chain Analysis

Ethereum’s Active Addresses metric continues to trend lower after peaking earlier in the year. The 30-day EMA of active addresses has been steadily declining, indicating that network participation has cooled significantly compared to previous highs.

Despite this longer-term downtrend in activity, the pace of the decline appears to be moderating, suggesting the network may be entering a stabilization phase rather than experiencing continued deterioration. Historically, periods where active addresses stabilize after prolonged weakness have often coincided with price consolidation before the next major directional move.

At the same time, ETH has managed to recover from its recent lows while active address growth remains subdued. This divergence implies that the current rebound has been driven more by improving market sentiment and positioning than by a broad resurgence in on-chain demand.

For the recovery to evolve into a more sustainable bullish trend, a gradual increase in active addresses alongside continued price appreciation would provide stronger confirmation that capital and user activity are returning to the Ethereum network. Until then, the improving technical structure should be viewed alongside still-muted on-chain participation, suggesting cautious optimism rather than confirmation of a full trend reversal.

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