Crypto Market Braces for Kevin Warsh’s First Fed Decision

The Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meets on Wednesday, June 17, for what is new Chair Kevin Warsh’s first policy decision, and Bitget CEO Gracy Chen thinks it is one of the most important macro events for crypto.

The setup, as she puts it, is genuinely difficult, with inflation sticky and the White House looking for easier liquidity, all while the Fed appears more internally divided than it has in years.

What Warsh Does Next Matters

Going by online comments from market watchers, nobody is expecting a rate move today, and a hold is almost certainly priced in, with some of them, like analyst HaxKai, pointing out that watching the rate decision itself “is watching the wrong thing.”

What matters, it seems, is the dot plot, and more than anything, how Warsh conducts his first press conference as chair. According to Chen, crypto has become a truly cross-asset in the way that older frameworks don’t capture.

“The old idea that crypto only trades on crypto-native narratives is outdated,” she wrote on X. “Today, BTC, US equities, gold, FX and commodities are all reacting to the same macro question: Where is liquidity going next?”

So, if Warsh comes across as hawkish, she expects the dollar to hold strong and pressure to build on gold and risk assets. But, in her opinion, if he sounds dovish, then there could be a possible relief rally across equities and crypto. However, she did note that the market would immediately question whether easing is justified when inflation is still quite high.

That framing has some data behind it, with a June 16 analysis by Charlie Bilello showing that BTC and gold are the only two major asset classes in the red for 2026, the cryptocurrency being down 27% year-to-date, while the S&P 500 is up 9% and small-cap stocks have gained 19%.

Mixed Feelings Ahead of FOMC

A past analysis by XWIN Research on Warsh suggested that he would focus more on balance sheet reduction than on rate cuts. It also suggested that shrinking liquidity through quantitative tightening could put pressure on risk assets even if short-term rates stayed the same.

But investor Ran Neuner posted that he is “mega bullish” going into the meeting. His reasoning is that any signal that the Fed is not leaning toward a hike path could support risk assets, especially if inflation expectations ease alongside lower oil prices.

However, HaxKai was less convinced. They noted that Bitcoin has dropped after most FOMC meetings and pointed to the recent rally from $59,000, which was stopped short at $67,000 earlier this week, as leaving plenty of room to fall. In this regard, they urged traders to refrain from making moves at the early stage right after the announcement.

At the time of this writing, the Bitcoin price was hovering near the $65,000 mark, about 2% down from yesterday’s price while registering almost a 6% gain over the previous seven days.

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