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Bitcoin’s $115K Struggle: Is a Deeper Drop on the Horizon?

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Bitcoin (BTC) is facing renewed downward pressure as it struggles to maintain levels above $115,000. At the time of writing, the cryptocurrency is trading around $115,745, down approximately 2.2% in the past 24 hours and nearly 6% below its July all-time high of $123,000.

The latest market movement has raised questions about short-term price stability, particularly amid growing concerns over weak structural support in the current trading zone.

Recent data from on-chain analytics platform CryptoQuant suggests that while long-term holders remain largely profitable, short-term sentiment has shifted.

Bitcoin UTXO Data Points to Changing Investor Behavior

Activity among Bitcoin Unspent Transaction Outputs (UTXOs), a metric that tracks coins being spent either in profit or at a loss, indicates that many investors are beginning to react to smaller price drops, potentially signaling increased market uncertainty.

In a recent analysis on CryptoQuant’s QuickTake platform, contributor Darkfost shared insights on how UTXO activity can reflect broader market sentiment.

“This chart, based on UTXOs from block data, highlights the number of UTXOs spent either in profit or in loss,” the analyst wrote, noting that this approach focuses on transaction count rather than value, helping filter out price-based noise.

Bitcoin UTXO metric.

Historically, Bitcoin has seen a dominance of UTXOs spent in profit, with patient holders benefiting from long-term appreciation. Between July 11 and 13, the ratio of profitable UTXOs compared to those spent at a loss surged above 10,000, meaning for every loss-making spend, there were over ten thousand profitable ones.

However, this ratio has since declined to around 500, suggesting that some investors are now closing positions at a loss even with minor price retracements. This change, according to Darkfost, may indicate short-term selling pressure despite the overall profitable status of most holders.

Weak Support Structure Adds to Downside Risk

Another CryptoQuant analyst, Maartunn, 突出显示 structural weaknesses in Bitcoin’s recent price surge. On July 10, BTC rapidly climbed from $112,000 to $115,800, but this upward move left little on-chain support in the price range.

“The move happened so quickly that no support levels were formed,” the analyst explained. “If momentum drops or sellers step in, the price could fall just as fast as it rose.”

With Bitcoin now hovering just above its last known on-chain support zone, analysts caution that a failure to hold this level could accelerate the decline.

Bitcoin (BTC) price chart on TradingView

Featured image created with DALL-E, Chart from TradingView

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