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Bitcoin Nears Final Stage of Bear Market Window – Is a Broader Recovery in Sight?

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This week’s Bitfinex Alpha report has revealed that bitcoin usually has a five-to-six-month bear market window where it trades below the Short-term Holder Realized Price. The fifth and sixth months mark the final phase of the period, after which the asset experiences a broader recovery.

July marks the fifth month in this bear phase window, and analysts believe BTC could witness a significant recovery. While there are positive dynamics that could drive the rebound in the coming weeks, market experts have also identified factors that could disrupt the recovery.

BTC Ends Five-Month Bear Window

According to Bitfinex analysts, the positive seasonality of July may drive the recovery, but macro factors like the June U.S. Consumer Price Index (CPI) and geopolitical tensions in the Middle East could constitute a hindrance. So, the end of the five-to-six-month window is not enough to confirm a broader recovery for BTC; macro and demand dynamics need to align as well.

So far this month, BTC has absorbed record corporate selling and weathered the storms of renewed geopolitical pressure. Last week, the asset was hit from every direction; Strategy executed its largest sale ever, and the Fed faced continued divisions.

Despite the harsh environment, BTC managed to maintain its range within $61,300 and $64,700. The asset’s resilience was further supported by spot Bitcoin exchange-traded funds (ETFs) breaking their outflow streak after nine weeks. These products recorded $197.4 million in net inflows for the first time in over two months.

Although the inflows into ETFs reflect recovering institutional demand, BTC still remains dependent on the macro environment, and July’s positive seasonality stays secondary.

ETFs Break Nine Weeks Outflow Streak

From a more detailed perspective, analysts believe the ETF inflow pattern matters more than the total. The inflows appeared more on quieter days and receded when geopolitical tensions intensified. This indicated that institutional demand has not established a durable floor.

With that in mind, one major indicator to watch is the 30-day Simple Moving Average (SMA) of ETF net inflows. This metric tracks the primary direction of institutional positioning and the persistent trend in market demand. The SMA signals that the monthly trend of ETF flows remains in a state of net contraction, with daily redemptions hitting $88.9 million.

The next moves of the SMA will depend on whether July’s seasonality is strong enough to override macro tensions in the coming weeks.

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