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Bitcoin Hits $78,000—All Eyes On $80,700 Cost Basis?

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On-chain data shows the cost basis of the Bitcoin short-term holders is located at $80,700, a level that could come into focus after the latest rally.

Bitcoin Is Nearing The Short-Term Holder Realized Price

在新的 邮寄 on X, cycle analyst Root has shared the latest data for the Realized Price of the short-term holders. The “Realized Price” here refers to an on-chain metric that keeps track of the average cost basis or acquisition level of investors on the Bitcoin network.

When the value of the cryptocurrency is above this indicator, it means the BTC holders as a whole are sitting on some net unrealized profit. On the other hand, the asset trading below the metric suggests the dominance of loss on the network. In the context of the current topic, the Realized Price of only a specific portion of the market is of interest: the short-term holders (STHs). This cohort includes the BTC investors who purchased their coins within the past 155 days.

Now, here is a chart that shows the trend in the Bitcoin STH Realized Price over the last few years:

Bitcoin STH Realized Price

As displayed in the above graph, the Bitcoin spot price broke under the STH Realized Price during the price drawdown of Q4 2025. Since then, the cryptocurrency has remained trapped below the line.

As BTC’s drawdown has played out, the STH cost basis itself has also gone down. The reason behind this naturally lies in the fact that coins have been getting involved in trading at the lower post-crash prices, thus decreasing the average acquisition mark of the new investors.

Today, the STH Realized Price is sitting at $80,700. Following BTC’s latest price rally, the cryptocurrency isn’t too far from hitting this level, implying that if the bullish winds continue, a retest of it could end up taking place.

In the past, the indicator has often held relevance for Bitcoin as a support or resistance level. The reason behind this lies in the fact that the STHs represent the low-conviction side of the market, who tend to easily show reaction to price movements; a retest of their cost basis is naturally an event that causes members of the cohort to make some moves on the network.

From the chart, it’s visible that the price rally back in January topped out near the STH Realized Price. This suggests that the cohort looked at the recovery surge as an opportunity to exit at their break-even mark.

If Bitcoin attempts another retest of the level in the near future, it will be interesting to see how the market will react this time around.

BTC Price

Bitcoin has hit the $78,200 level following its latest price surge.

Bitcoin Price Chart

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