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Bitcoin (BTC) in Trouble: Analyst Sees a Potential Drop Below $40K

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The primary cryptocurrency attempted a decisive rebound earlier this month, rising to nearly $65,000.

However, the bears intercepted the move and pulled the price to the current $62,600, while many analysts believe the cycle’s bottom has yet to be reached.

More Pain Ahead?

X user Aralez claimed that the asset’s “massive bull trap” is entering its final stage, predicting severe volatility in the following months. The analyst expects the price to first rally toward $70,000, only to hit strong resistance and reverse sharply to around $39,000. After that final shakeout, they forecast a new long-term uptrend that could send BTC to as high as $150,000 by late 2027.

X user Crypto Lens shared a similar thesis, envisioning a plunge below $50,000 sometime this week and a crash under $40,000 by August. “Don’t become the exit liquidity,” they warned.

The analyst, who goes by symbiote on X, also chipped in. They believe BTC has roughly 80 days left before reaching its cycle bottom, basing the projection on the asset’s performance during the previous bear markets in 2018 and 2022.

Bitcoin’s Market Value to Realized Value (MVRV) ratio suggests that the actual floor still appears to be ahead. The figure has been declining over the past several months but has not yet dropped below 1, which, according to CryptoQuant, has historically marked “generational buying opportunities and cycle bottoms.”

BTC MVRV
BTC MVRV, Source: CryptoQuant

The Bullish Scenario

Other analysts are more optimistic and outlined important reasons why BTC might be on the verge of a short-term resurgence. X user AlΞx Wacy noted that the asset recently hit its most oversold monthly reading in history: a development that is often a precursor of a rally.

For his part, Ali Martinez paid attention to BTC’s Accumulation Trend Score, which has remained close to 1. This signals persistent accumulation by large investors, which is usually a bullish factor for the price.

One should also keep in mind that July has historically been a positive month for BTC. The asset has finished the period in the red only four out of 13 times, and it remains to be seen whether another green print is ahead.

BTC Monthly Returns
BTC Monthly Returns, Source: CoinGlass

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