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World Cup Fever Fuels $5.6B Explosion in Prediction Markets

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The FIFA World Cup’s round of 16 matches are set to kick off on July 4, and football, or soccer as it’s known in the United States, has become the biggest driver of activity on prediction platforms, diverting attention from the political and macroeconomic markets they were originally built around.

This is according to data from research firm CryptoRank, which shows that the tournament has pushed prediction market volumes from just $65 million on June 1 to a monthly peak of $5.6 billion on June 22.

World Cup Drives Record Activity Across Prediction Platforms

Per CryptoRank’s data, throughout June, total trading volume across major prediction venues rose rapidly, from the aforementioned $65 million on June 1 to $340 million on June 8, just days before the World Cup started. A week later, on June 15, the volume had jumped to $2.2 billion, with 15 matches played, including the USA’s memorable 4-1 win over Paraguay in Los Angeles.

By the time 42 games had been played on June 22, trading on the platforms had gone up even higher, with CryptoRank reporting that volume had hit a high of $5.6 billion before showing a slight reduction seven days later, when about $5.4 billion in trades was recorded on June 29.

In a post on X on July 2, the firm 说过 that Kalshi had accounted for much of that June activity, with its dashboard at the time of writing showing open interest, or the total value of active positions that have yet to be settled, standing at $1.84 billion. Of that amount, roughly $1.45 billion was on Kalshi while Polymarket held about $390 million.

During the previous week, open interest remained relatively stable on Kalshi at around $1 billion, while on Polymarket, it peaked at $475 million on June 30, the day Norway, Sweden, and the Netherlands were knocked out of the competition in dramatic style.

BitMart pointed to similar trends on its own platform. With multiple research institutions projecting that the total global trading volume on prediction markets could reach $10 billion, the crypto exchange said that most of that traffic has so far been directed to centralized platforms like it, given their lower barriers to entry compared to on-chain prediction products that require private keys and gas fees as well as contract approvals that need several steps to complete.

As such, the CEX reported that its monthly prediction market volumes skyrocketed 1,500% from May after the World Cup started. It also said active users increased 4.6 times, while completed orders went up nearly 9 times.

Furthermore, according to the exchange, nearly 44% of newly registered users placed their first trade through its prediction markets, with football markets being the main attraction for the newcomers before some of them expanded into crypto price predictions.

An Industry With Some Baggage

Polymarket’s more subdued performance in the World Cup month compared to Kalshi has come against a backdrop of criticism on several fronts. For instance, a Wall Street Journal (WSJ) investigation published in June alleged that the platform has been using staged winning bets in promotional videos.

There was also a recent dispute that made headlines, in which a user accused Polymarket of changing the rules of a market tied to Strategy’s Bitcoin sale, raising questions about how such firms resolve contested outcomes.

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