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Will Markets Move Even Higher When $3.3B Bitcoin Options Expire

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Around 28,000 Bitcoin options contracts will expire on Friday, October 3, and they have a notional value of roughly $3.37 billion.

This expiry event is back to normal following last week’s epic end of third quarter event, so there is unlikely to be any impact on spot markets, which have gained this week.

US labor market data remains weak, which puts more pressure on the Federal Reserve to reduce rates again this month, a bonus for risk-on assets such as crypto.

Bitcoin Options Expiry

This week’s batch of Bitcoin options contracts has a put/call ratio of 1.1, meaning that there are slightly more short contracts expiring than longs, as the bulls regain composure. Max pain is around $115,000, according to Coinglass.

Open interest (OI), or the value or number of Bitcoin options contracts yet to expire, is highest at $120,000, which has reached $2.2 billion at this strike price on Deribit. There is also around $1.9 billion OI at $140,000, but $100,000 is a popular strike price for short sellers with $1.6 billion in OI.

Total BTC options OI across all exchanges is around $49 billion, which has fallen over the past week. Additionally, total Bitcoin futures OI currently stands at $86.5 billion, which is still close to record highs, according to Coinglass.

Meanwhile, ETF expert Eric Balchunas observed that BlackRock’s IBIT has surpassed Coinbase’s Derbit platform as the largest venue for Bitcoin options.

Earlier this week, crypto derivatives provider Greeks Live said the group was “experiencing frustration with the current market conditions, describing it as extreme choppy price action that’s difficult to trade profitably.” However, this was before the current rally.

In addition to today’s tranche of Bitcoin options, around 216,000 Ethereum contracts are also expiring, with a notional value of $987 million, maximum pain at $4,200, and a put/call ratio of 0.93. Total ETH options OI across all exchanges is around $13.5 billion, reports Coinglass. This brings Friday’s combined crypto options expiry notional value to around $4.3 billion.

Spot Market Outlook

Crypto markets are ending the week in the green with total capitalization up 1.4% to near record highs of $4.23 trillion. Markets have had a solid week, gaining more than 10% since the same time last Friday.

Bitcoin was still leading the charge, topping $121,000 very briefly in late trading on Thursday before retreating to $120,000 during Friday morning trading in Asia. The asset has made a solid 10% gain over the past week.

Ethereum was also making progress, notching an intraday high just over $4,500 during Asian trading. ETH is now up 14% since the same time last week. Meanwhile, BNB was at an all-time high of just below $1,100 at the time of writing.

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