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What Does Bitcoin’s 3.9 Holder Ratio Tell Us About the Market Right Now?

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Bitcoin dipped below $63,000 yesterday ahead of the FOMC meeting today but has recovered well over a grand since then.

Prominent analyst Joao Wedson identified on-chain data that suggests BTC is nearing a historically significant accumulation zone.

Long-Term Holders Take Control

In his latest tweet, Wedson explained that he divided the Long-Term Holder Realized Cap by the Short-Term Holder Realized Cap to track where the market’s realized capital is concentrated. According to the Alphractal founder, Bitcoin formed major price bottoms on two previous occasions when this ratio moved above 4. The metric currently stands at 3.9, which means the market is approaching that historically important threshold.

The reading indicates that a much larger share of realized capital is now held by Long-Term Holders than by Short-Term Holders, which demonstrates a shift toward investors with stronger conviction while short-term speculative participation remains relatively limited.

Wedson added that this type of market structure has previously emerged during “advanced” accumulation phases, when weaker hands exit, and ownership moves to long-term investors. Alphractal stated,

“It does not confirm that the exact bottom is already in. However, it shows that Bitcoin is approaching a zone that previously appeared during major cycle-bottom formations.”

A similar view was echoed by Santiment, which found that wallets holding between 10 and 10,000 BTC increased their stash by 19,696 during the eight-day period it tracked. Meanwhile, wallets with less than 0.01 BTC displayed weaker dip-buying activity. On the institutional front, Bitcoin ETFs recorded around $172 million in inflows in July. These factors, combined, make the overall setup “constructive” as supply continued shifting toward stronger hands, Santiment noted.

MVRV Differs From Past Cycles

All eyes are on Bitcoin’s current position in the market cycle. Trader Ardi 说过 the asset’s MVRV ratio currently stands at 1.21, well above the levels seen at previous bear market lows of 0.69 in 2018 and 0.75 in 2022. The metric compares BTC’s market value with its realized value to show how far the price trades above or below the network’s aggregate cost basis.

Based on those historical levels, Ardi said that it has not reached the same degree of capitulation seen in the last two cycles. However, he added that volatility is compressing and cycle extremes are becoming less severe. Because of that, he believes MVRV could form a higher low during this cycle.

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