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The Hidden Reason Behind Bitcoin’s Massive Crash Below $62K

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Bitcoin’s sell-off went from bad to worse during the weekend, with the asset briefly plunging below $62,000 for the first time in approximately three months.

While macro pressure, ETF withdrawals, forced liquidations, and turmoil across technology stocks have all contributed, one unusual liquidity drain may be making the downturn considerably worse.

IPO Behind the Dump?

Whenever such a calamity occurs, everyone is trying to figure out why, including us. We published a few articles listing reasons that could be blamed for BTC’s massive pullback from $81,000 to under $62,000 in ten days, including one focusing particularly on the Saturday crash.

There’s a fresh perspective on the matter, though; one that we missed as well, and it actually makes sense because it has already happened before. Strive CEO Matt Cole highlighted an intriguing similarity between bitcoin’s current decline and what took place ahead of SpaceX’s record-breaking IPO in June.

Elon Musk’s company raised $75 billion when it went public on June 12. During the 50 days leading up to the listing, BTC dumped by almost 20%. Now, it’s Anthropic’s turn to hit the stage.

The AI giant is seeking to raise up to $64.4 billion, which would make it the second-largest IPO on record, behind SpaceX. Investor demand has been extraordinary, with orders reportedly reaching roughly six times the number of shares available.

Bitcoin’s performance ahead of the listing looks strikingly similar. Cole calculated that BTC had fallen roughly 18% over the equivalent 50-day period at the time of his post, but the asset tanked further on Saturday, so the losses are closer to 25%.

“From the IPO-day close to Day +100, Bitcoin gained 28%. From the low, it gained 39%.

The takeaway is that the selling came in the run-up to the listing. The bottom had effectively happened by the IPO, and the recovery came relatively shortly after, and it came all at once,” he noted.

What Does BTC Need Now?

The Kobeissi Letter 报告 that the crypto market cap has erased $330 billion during the week, while the liquidations skyrocketed to $2 billion over the weekend alone. Spot Bitcoin ETFs remained deep in the red for the week, and some argued that BTC desperately needs a fresh catalyst to turn the tables.

In fact, it needs liquidity to return. That could mean the Anthropic capital raise finally absorbing the money investors have set aside for it, ETF redemptions slowing or reversing, spot demand returning, and macro conditions becoming less hostile.

The SpaceX precedent offers a potentially bullish roadmap: a giant IPO drains liquidity before the listing, BTC bottoms around the event, and capital subsequently rotates back into liquid markets. For now, though, there’s a lot of blood on the streets, and traders should approach every rebound attempt carefully, as it could be another dead-cat bounce.

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