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Sports Events Push Prediction Market Trading to Record Highs in June

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Notional volume on prediction markets climbed sharply in the second quarter of 2026 and reached $113.8 billion, up 48.7% from the previous quarter.

CoinGecko found that the momentum accelerated in June, when monthly notional volume surged to a record $50.7 billion, which represented a 92% increase from the average monthly volume of $27.5 billion posted over the prior five months.

Sports Drive June Surge

In its latest report, CoinGecko attributed the spike to a packed calendar of major sporting events beginning in late May, such as the UEFA Champions League Final, Stanley Cup, NBA Finals, FIFA World Cup, and Wimbledon. The sports-driven activity was particularly evident on Polymarket, where sports-related contracts accounted for 81% of trading volume in June, as opposed to 40% in January.

Despite this increase in sports trading, Polymarket’s market share declined quarter-over-quarter from 35.8% to 30.2%. On the other hand, Kalshi has managed to expand its lead after increasing its share from 42.4% in the first quarter to almost 58.9% in the second.

Meanwhile, Rothera, the Robinhood/Susquehanna International Group joint venture launched in May, quickly climbed to fourth place in June with $2.1 billion in notional volume.

Wall Street and Big Tech Into the Race

Prediction markets gained momentum. Last month, Cboe Global Markets launched Cboe Predicts, its new prediction markets platform featuring securities-based binary option contracts tied to the Mini-S&P 500 Index. The contracts, trading under the symbols XSPBW and XSPBX, are already available through Interactive Brokers, while Charles Schwab is expected to add access in the coming months.

Cboe also said more brokerage firms are likely to support the products over time. The contracts allow traders to take a “yes” or “no” position on whether the Mini-S&P 500 Index will settle at or above a specified level at expiration.

Additionally, the New York Times 报告 that Meta is developing a standalone prediction markets app called Arena, where users would predict real-world outcomes using points instead of real money. According to the report, the experimental project is a top priority for CEO Mark Zuckerberg and could eventually expand to real-money betting. The initiative follows Meta’s earlier Forecast app, a points-based prediction platform launched in 2020 during the COVID-19 pandemic before being discontinued in 2022.

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