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On-Chain Clues Suggest Bitcoin Bounce Might Be a False Signal—Here’s What to Know

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Bitcoin has shown signs of stabilization following its earlier correction this month, which saw the asset fall to as low as $74,000. Over the past week, Bitcoin has rebounded strongly, gaining nearly 10%, and now trades above $84,000.

This upward movement has reignited optimism among investors, though some analysts remain cautious about calling this a definitive trend reversal.

Apparent Demand Shows Recovery, But Trend Reversal Uncertain

According to recent on-chain 数据, the current recovery in BTC may be linked to improving demand indicators. However, it is suggested that the broader market structure still needs to confirm whether this bounce reflects a sustainable rally or is merely a temporary pause in the ongoing correction.

CryptoQuant contributor Kripto Mevsimi particularly drew attention to Bitcoin’s Apparent Demand metric, specifically the 30-day sum, which has started to rebound from negative territory.

Bitcoin apparent demand.

This trend is being observed as a potential sign of changing market dynamics. However, Mevsimi warns against assuming this is the start of a new bullish cycle, drawing parallels to Bitcoin’s behavior during the latter part of the 2021 cycle.

During that period, demand remained suppressed for an extended timeframe, even as prices temporarily recovered. Only after a long consolidation phase did the market experience a genuine structural shift.

Mevsimi highlights that although momentum may be improving, more time and confirmation are necessary before a macro-level trend reversal can be confirmed.

Bitcoin Short-Term Holder Selling Pressure Declines on Binance

Another market signal worth watching comes from Binance, one of the largest crypto exchanges by trading volume. CryptoQuant analyst Darkfost reports that inflows of Bitcoin from short-term holders (STHs) to Binance have been steadily decreasing, suggesting a decline in immediate selling pressure.

The data indicates that average realized prices for STHs currently hover around $92,800, meaning many recent sellers have exited at a loss.

Bitcoin short-term holders (STHs) metric.

Darkfost notes that inflows from STHs dropped from approximately 17,000 BTC in November to around 9,000 BTC more recently. This downtrend in selling could provide some support for Bitcoin’s current price levels.

Still, the analyst emphasizes the need for continued monitoring to determine if this reduction in selling pressure persists. The easing of short-term holder activity could reduce overhead resistance and contribute to market stability, but confirmation of accumulation or a broader bullish phase remains elusive.

Featured image created with DALL-E, Chart from TradingView

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