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Macro Uncertainty Meets Market Balance in Bitcoin’s On-Chain Activity

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Bitcoin has held steady above $104K as the typically quiet summer months bring subdued activity and reduced volatility across the crypto market.

This price consolidation, however, appears to reflect a balanced market as on-chain metrics point to neither excessive profit-taking nor aggressive accumulation.

Realized Profits Stay Subdued

The 7-day moving average of realized profits indicated that profit-taking activity remains subdued, with figures holding below $1 billion, comparable to levels observed during the October 2024 correction, according to CryptoQuant’s latest update.

Even during Bitcoin’s surge to a new all-time high earlier this year, realized profits failed to match the peaks seen in January 2025. This was indicative of a lack of urgency among investors to cash out. Such a limited selling pressure has contributed to the current consolidation phase and signaled a cautiously optimistic sentiment.

However, what’s preventing a stronger bullish breakout is the apparent weakness in demand. The ratio of newly issued supply to dormant supply (inactive for over a year) shows demand. While still positive, it has been steadily declining since the local high in May.

A ratio above zero typically reflects healthy demand, but the gradual drop suggests that buying interest is cooling off. Despite this, the demand remains sufficient to absorb the existing selling pressure, which is keeping the market stable.

Overall, Bitcoin appears to be in a state of equilibrium, where moderate realized profits and slowly waning demand offset each other – an environment that supports consolidation rather than a sharp directional move in the near term.

While on-chain activity reflects a balanced market, sentiment indicators are beginning to tilt bearish.

A Classic Contrarian Buy Signal Emerges

Santiment’s latest 数据 shows a spike in retail bearish sentiment toward Bitcoin. Interestingly, this trend often signals a potential rebound.

Currently, there are just 1.03 bullish comments for every bearish one – levels not seen since April 6th, when fear peaked amid initial tariff-related market reactions. Historically, such negative sentiment among traders has preceded upward price moves, as markets tend to act contrary to retail expectations.

Similar fear in early April marked a strong buy opportunity, which suggests current conditions could offer a repeat setup for crypto bulls

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