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Is Bitcoin Bottoming Out? Long-Term Indicators Shift as Short-Term Pain Persists: Fidelity

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“Is Bitcoin flashing bear market continuation, or an early bull market reset?” asked Fidelity Digital Assets on Tuesday. The asset manager noted that BTC has been in a death cross for more than 200 days, with the price briefly breaking below the 200-week moving average over the weekend.

“Notably, sustained breaks below this level have historically coincided with forced selling events,” such as in 2022, it added.

These are also signs of a final capitulation during the depths of the bear market, which is currently only 8 months old. Additionally, BTC hit a 50% retrace from its peak, and previous bear markets were a lot deeper.

Signs of Bear Market Bottom Forming

Fidelity also observed that MVRV (market value to realized value) is moving toward historically undervalued territory as the asset approaches the realized price of $53,600, which is the aggregate purchase price. However, this is “possibly signaling a deeper reset in positioning beneath the surface,” the analysts said.

Meanwhile, Fear & Greed is in extreme fear but still not as low as February, which is significant since sentiment is currently weak, but valuation is more compressed, they said before concluding.

“Short-term signals appear to lean bearish—but longer-term indicators are starting to shift.”

Analysts at Swissblock 说过 that “Bitcoin is deep in capitulation,” with price momentum sitting at an “extreme negative reading.” Momentum needs to cross back above -0.5 for structural reconstruction to begin, they said. When this happens, “capitulation is beginning to ease, and trend expansion is possible again,” but until then, “the base case remains fragile,” they added.

10x Research analysts 说过 something similar on Tuesday. “The market is unwinding, but BTC is building a base.” However, Bitcoin dominance is falling, stablecoin reserves are falling, Strategy remains a serious headwind, and the beginning of the football World Cup has been flagged as a potential BTC cycle low, they said.

“Data supports BTC carving out a base, with higher prices expected through Q3/Q4 … Regulated derivatives infrastructure is expanding. This matters for the next leg up.”

Bitcoin Price Outlook

Bitcoin attempted recovery on Monday, tapping $64,000, but there was little momentum above that, with the asset falling to an intraday low of $62,500 during Asian trading on Tuesday morning.

It has started to consolidate at current levels over the past five days and could hover around this price zone for the next few months, as it did between March and October 2024.

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