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Bitcoin’s Weak Hands Are Folding – But Is One Final Flush Still Ahead?

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Bitcoin traded in a tight range around $64,500 as investors remained cautious following the Federal Reserve’s hawkish hold, while ongoing US-Iran tensions kept risk sentiment in check.

Against this backdrop, a key BTC on-chain metric has fallen 62% in the past nine months.

Short-Term Holders Are Cracking

Crypto analyst Darkfost said short-term Bitcoin holders (STHs) continue to realize losses, as cumulative losses are becoming increasingly significant. In the latest note, the analyst found that STHs’ realized capitalization has declined by nearly 62% from its October 2025 peak.

According to Darkfost, the drop reflects typical behavior seen among short-term holders during market corrections. This includes extreme capitulation, which removes UTXOs created at much higher prices, as well as continued accumulation during the correction, which creates new UTXOs at lower prices. This process mechanically reduces the realized capitalization of the STH cohort.

The findings also reveal that previous bear markets recorded drawdowns of 70% to 75% in this metric. While the current levels are approaching that range, it remains uncertain whether the market will continue consolidating or enter a final correction phase.

Earlier this week, Joao Wedson stated that Bitcoin may be approaching a historically important accumulation zone based on on-chain data. The Alphractal founder noted that the ratio of Long-Term Holder Realized Cap to Short-Term Holder Realized Cap climbed to 3.9, close to the level above 4 that previously coincided with major market bottoms.

This trend shows realized capital is increasingly concentrated among long-term holders, which is essentially indicative of stronger investor conviction and an advanced accumulation phase as short-term holders exit.

BTC’s longer-term outlook continues to remain a subject of debate. Sykodelic, for one, has made one of the boldest forecasts yet. In a recent market outlook, the crypto analyst argued that the current bear market is a mid-cycle correction. Drawing comparisons with the 2011-2013 and 2019-2021 cycles, he predicted Bitcoin could climb to between $380,000 and $450,000 from March 2028.

The forecast is primarily based on the 200-week simple moving average multiplied by five and a quantile-95 statistical band. However, not everyone was convinced, and many skeptics disputed both the projected timeline and the methodology behind it.

IBIT Drives ETF Gains

On the institutional side, US spot Bitcoin ETFs returned to positive territory on Wednesday after four straight days of outflows. The funds posted net inflows of over $32 million. BlackRock’s IBIT led the way with $89.83 million.

Withdrawals from other ETFs, including Fidelity’s FBTC, which saw $43 million in outflows, and Ark 21Shares’ ARKB, which lost $14.6 million, limited the overall gains.

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