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Bitcoin Price Analysis: Here’s Why the Next Few Days Will Be Crucial for BTC

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Bitcoin is trading around $74.7k, holding near its highest levels since the February breakdown, as the recovery momentum built over the past two weeks continues to develop.

The move is encouraging, but BTC now stands at one of the most technically important junctures of the entire correction, near the confluence of the descending channel’s upper boundary and the 100-day moving average, two levels that have defined the bearish structure for months.

Bitcoin Price Analysis: The Daily Chart

For the first time in this correction cycle, BTC appears to be pressing a genuine breakout attempt above the descending channel, with the price now breaking above the upper boundary near $74k–$75k alongside the declining 100-day MA nearby. The RSI has also climbed into the high-60s, which is the strongest daily momentum reading since before the February crash, and is lending some credibility to the attempt, while also not showing overbought signals.

Whether this becomes a confirmed breakout or another failed one depends on how the price behaves over the next few daily closes. A sustained close above the channel and the $75k–$80k resistance band would be a structural shift of real significance, and would open a path toward $88k–$90k, where the 200-day MA awaits. On the downside, $60k–$62k is the key support that buyers should defend at all costs if the breakout fails.

BTC/USDT 4-Hour Chart

On the 4-hour chart, BTC continues to trade inside the mildly ascending channel that has been in place since the February lows. The price has now risen above the midline and is attempting to break above the $74-$76k resistance zone. The 4-hour RSI is also hovering near 60s, which leaves room for a further push without the immediate threat of an RSI-driven rejection like those seen in prior attempts.

A clean breakout above $76k with the RSI holding above 60 would be a compelling short-term bullish signal and could accelerate a run toward the $80k–$82k zone. If the asset stalls and pulls back from here, the recent low near $71k is the first support to watch, followed by the lower boundary of the channel at $67k.

On-Chain Analysis

Bitcoin’s exchange reserves have fallen to approximately 2.68M BTC. It is at its lowest level in the entire dataset, stretching back to mid-2023, and a dramatic decline from the 3.2M BTC peak seen in early 2024. The drawdown has been steep and consistent, accelerating through the second half of 2025 and continuing even as the price corrected sharply from the $125k peak.

The significance of this reading is hard to overstate. With less Bitcoin sitting on exchanges than at any point in recent history, the immediately available sell-side supply is structurally thinner than it has been throughout the past 3 years, including the periods when BTC was trading at much lower prices. In a scenario where demand returns with conviction, the lack of exchange-side supply could amplify upward price moves significantly.

The setup mirrors conditions seen ahead of previous recoveries, where a tightening supply base combined with improving sentiment created the conditions for outsized moves. The key missing ingredient, as always, is the sustained demand. But the foundation being built on-chain is among the most constructive in years.

 

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