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Why Bitcoin’s Current Setup Looks ‘Constructive’ Despite the Pullback

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After showing signs of strength earlier Monday, Bitcoin reversed course shortly after. The crypto asset fell by 3% in the last 24 hours and briefly touched the $63,000 mark.

Even as the price weakened, larger holders of the crypto asset have continued accumulating.

Supply Shift

Santiment found that wallets holding between 10 and 10,000 BTC have added a combined 19,696 units over the past eight days. On the other hand, wallets holding less than 0.01 BTC have shown weaker dip-buying activity during the same period, which indicates that retail demand is cooling.

This comes at a time when Bitcoin ETFs attracted a little over $222 million in inflows so far in July. The analytics firm said that these factors together point to a “constructive” market setup and demonstrate that the crypto asset’s supply is “shifting toward stronger hands.”

Zooming out, Swissblock said BTC remains in its consolidation, or “Bullish Transition,” phase, although the window for a recovery is gradually narrowing. During the previous bullish transition, the firm observed that Bitcoin consolidated for 40 days before moving into a recovery phase. The current cycle has lasted 30 days so far.

According to the analysis, the market now needs to sustain its bottom signal before it can advance into recovery. Swissblock added that such transition periods often test investors’ conviction and shake out impatient participants before a recovery begins.

Quiet Accumulation

While Bitcoin is trading roughly 50% below its October 2025 high of $126,200, on-chain data also shows that BTC held on exchanges has fallen by around 78,000 units over the past six months, dropping from 2.783 million to 2.705 million and nearing the lowest levels of the current cycle. CryptoQuant noted that during a typical capitulation, investors send BTC to exchanges to sell.

However, investors kept moving Bitcoin into self-custody throughout the current correction. This is a sign of long-term holding and not distribution. Lower exchange supply could amplify future price gains if demand strengthens. But a sustained rise in the netflow 7D MA would signal renewed distribution and intensify the risk of a retest of $58,000.

Additionally, BSCN 보고 that two newly identified institutional-scale wallets withdrew a total of 6,765 BTC, worth approximately $441.34 million, from Binance in a coordinated move on Monday. According to the update, both transactions took place within the same hour. These transfers, BSCN said, point to a migration of spot liquidity from Binance’s reserves into private cold storage.

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