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Despite an 18% Drop, XRP’s Exchange Supply Hits Lows—Bullish Setup Ahead?

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XRP has been trading under pressure in recent weeks, losing much of the momentum it built during its late 2024 to early 2025 rally. After reaching highs above $3.40, the asset has experienced an 18.3% decline over the past month, reflecting broader market softness.

At the time of writing, XRP trades significantly below its peak at a price of $2.06, with subdued investor activity and falling market participation across both spot and derivatives markets.

XRP On-Chain Activity Slows, But Price Remains Relatively Stable

Amid XRP’s decline, a CryptoQuant analyst known as EgyHash has recently shared his analysis on the altcoin in a post titled, “XRP’s Market Paradox: With Ledger Activity Dipping 80%, Is a Rebound on the Horizon?”

According to EgyHash, XRP’s on-chain and futures market data presents a mixed picture—declining activity but resilience in price. EgyHash noted that XRP Ledger activity has fallen sharply since December, with the percentage of active addresses down by 80%.

Similar declines have been observed in the futures market, where open interest has dropped roughly 70% from its highs, and funding rates have occasionally turned negative.

XRP ledger open interest on all exchanges

He added that the Estimated Leverage Ratio, which gauges average user leverage by comparing open interest to coin reserves, has also dropped significantly.

Despite these indicators pointing to weakening momentum, the altcoin’s price has only declined about 35% from its peak. This is a milder correction compared to other assets such as Ethereum, which has fallen roughly 60% over the same period.

Additionally, the altcoin’s Exchange Reserve has continued to decline, reaching levels last observed in July 2023. Lower reserves typically suggest that fewer tokens are available for immediate sale, a factor that can help support prices during market downturns.

XRP Ledger Exchange Reserve on Binance.

According to EgyHash, this trend, along with relatively stable pricing, could indicate growing long-term confidence in the asset.

Institutional Developments Could Strengthen Market Sentiment

While on-chain metrics remain a focus, institutional developments may also play a role in shaping XRP’s future trajectory. Hong Kong-based investment firm HashKey Capital recently 발표 the launch of the HashKey XRP Tracker Fund—the first XRP-focused investment vehicle in Asia.

Backed by Ripple as the anchor investor, the fund is expected to transition into an exchange-traded fund (ETF) in the future. The initiative is designed to attract more institutional capital into the XRP ecosystem.

HashKey Capital has also indicated that this collaboration with Ripple could lead to further projects, including tokenized investment products and decentralized finance (DeFi) solutions.

Vivien Wong, a partner at HashKey, emphasized the strategic value of integrating Ripple’s network with regulated investment infrastructure across Asia.

Although the altcoin faces near-term pressure, long-term developments, including decreasing exchange reserves and rising institutional interest, may support its recovery as the broader market stabilizes.

XRP price chart on TradingView

Featured image created with DALL-E, Chart from TradingView

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