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Bitcoin Faces Major Test As 37% Recovery Collides With Bear Resistance

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Traders cashed out nearly $1.2 billion worth of Bitcoin in a single day last week — a sign that the recent recovery may be running out of steam.

On May 4, investors sold 14,600 Bitcoin, pushing daily realized profits to their highest point since early December.

에 따르면 CryptoQuant, that kind of selling spike during a bear market rally has historically marked a local price top.

A Rally Under Pressure

비트코인 climbed roughly 37% over six weeks, rising from $66,000 in early April to briefly touch $82,380. That level lines up with the cryptocurrency’s 200-day moving average — a technical marker that proved to be a wall during the 2022 bear market.

Back then, Bitcoin hit that same average in March before sliding further into a prolonged decline. CryptoQuant’s latest research draws a direct line between that episode and today’s setup.

Unrealized profits among traders also spiked during the recent run-up. On May 5, profit margins reached over 17%, the highest reading since June of last year.

Data shows that figure mirrors conditions last seen in March 2022 — right before Bitcoin resumed its fall.

The combination of profit-taking and a historically significant resistance level has prompted CryptoQuant to flag the possibility of a trend reversal.

Inflation Data Adds To The Pressure

Outside the crypto market, broader economic signals are adding to the uncertainty. The US Labor Department reported that producer prices rose 1.4% in April, the steepest increase in four years.

Bitcoin has grown more sensitive to US economic data as Wall Street adoption has expanded, and the inflation report pushed the price down 2.3% in 24 hours to around $79,250.

If selling pressure does push Bitcoin lower, CryptoQuant puts the next major support around $70,000. That level reflects the average price at which all Bitcoin was last transacted and has historically shifted from resistance to support during bear markets.

At that point, short-term traders would have little unrealized profit left, removing much of the incentive to sell.

Bulls Still See A Different Path

Not everyone reads the charts the same way. MN Capital founder Michaël van de Poppe said Bitcoin could make a fast move to $90,000 if the US Senate advances the CLARITY Act, a long-awaited piece of crypto legislation.

A return to Bitcoin’s all-time high of $126,000 is seen as almost inevitable, according to Maelstrom investment chief Arthur Hayes

Hayes pointed to money printing pressures linked to the Iran conflict and the escalating US-China race in artificial intelligence as key catalysts.

Both views reflect the sharp divide among market watchers as Bitcoin sits at a critical juncture.

Featured image from Mint, chart from TradingView

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