Altcoins Endure Record-Breaking Bear Market – But a Bullish Divergence Could Change Everything

October has been brutal for crypto assets at one point, as sharp price swings and fear continued to dominate the market.

But the altcoin market may be on the verge of a long-awaited resurgence after enduring what crypto analyst Michaël van de Poppe calls “the longest bear market ever.”

Altcoin Winter Is Ending?

In a recent analysis, van de Poppe noted that altcoins have suffered nearly four years of continuous decline, with valuations persistently trending lower since the last major cycle. Despite widespread pessimism and disbelief in an altcoin recovery, he argues that the market is now positioned at the forefront of a potential major surge.

Van de Poppe warned against comparing the current four-year cycle with previous ones, and added that this cycle has “proven to be completely different” from past market structures and will likely continue to diverge. Many investors, he said, expect similar 1,000% returns to those seen in the previous bull market. However, the analyst stressed that such extraordinary gains would require equally extraordinary decision-making and risk-taking, something achieved only by “that 0.1% compared to the rest of the world.”

According to his analysis, the market is now entering what may be “the final easy cycle,” as adoption continues to accelerate, new participants enter the market, and assets remain broadly mispriced. He suggested that after this phase, opportunities for outsized returns may diminish as the market matures and becomes more efficient.

By combining on-chain data with the broader business cycle, van de Poppe found that the current market resembles the conditions of late 2019 to early 2020, just before the last major crypto uptrend. He highlighted several important technical signals supporting this view. For instance, the MACD has shown a consistent series of red bars since late 2021, but is now close to crossing into positive territory, which indicates a potential bullish reversal.

Additionally, he pointed to a “massive monthly bullish divergence” that has persisted for two years, with red bars on the chart expected to turn green soon, as momentum strengthens.

“Everybody hating on Altcoins equals everybody should be buying blue chips and sit on their hands for a year. That will provide that big return that we’re all seeking for.”

Opportunity

Other experts are seeing similar signs of recovery and believe that the low prices could end up being a favorable entry point. For instance, CryptoQuant had recently revealed that panic-driven selling often drives valuations below fair levels and rewards contrarian investors. The platform found that only a handful of Binance-listed altcoins were trading above their 200-day moving average, amidst widespread capitulation. Historically, such extreme market setups have preceded significant rebounds.

Similarly, Joao Wedson, founder of analytics firm Alphractal, also expects short-term stagnation but believes selective altcoins could outperform once sentiment changes as market confidence begins to recover.

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