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Ethereum’s Next Leg Higher? Historic Indicator and Whale Activity Align

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Ethereum has climbed by 16% over the past month and is now showing a technical setup that has historically been followed by strong price recoveries, according to crypto analyst Ali Martinez.

He found that ETH’s MVRV ratio is nearing a bullish crossover above its 160-day simple moving average (SMA).

Recovery Hints

The MVRV Momentum measures the relationship between aggregate holder profitability and its medium-term trend line. Martinez explained that when the daily MVRV ratio moves back above the 160-day SMA, it indicates a shift out of capitulation and the beginning of a fresh accumulation phase. Interestingly, this is the first time the setup has emerged in 2026.

Over the past three years, crossovers above this level have consistently marked the end of distribution periods and preceded major rebounds in ETH’s price.

At the same time, large investors continue adding to their holdings. According to Lookonchain, an anonymous whale purchased 27,000 ETH worth $52.03 million through Galaxy Digital’s over-the-counter (OTC) desk after remaining inactive for three months.

Additionally, BSCN reported that BitMEX co-founder Arthur Hayes acquired another 644.34 ETH worth roughly $1.25 million, increasing his total purchases over the past eight days to 3,270 ETH. This follows his earlier $2.53 million ETH buy and comes alongside several other multi-million-dollar Ethereum purchases and staking activity reported earlier this week.

Prediction markets are also leaning bullish. In fact, Whale Insiders said Kalshi traders are forecasting ETH could climb as high as $3,210 this year.

Separate data also showed that investors withdrew around 1 million ETH, worth nearly $2 billion, from centralized exchanges over the past 30 days, which pushed exchange balances to their lowest level in a decade. Declining exchange reserves typically reduce selling pressure and support a bullish outlook.

On the institutional front, spot Ethereum ETFs have recorded consistent net inflows this month, raking in over $380 million during this period.

Alternative Outlook

Not all analysts share the same near-term outlook. Crypto analyst Nonzee, for one, argued that the crypto asset could still see one more rally before a deeper correction. He expects it to test $2,000, with a possible move to $2,200 if Bitcoin climbs to $70,000. However, he believes those levels would mark a bull trap rather than the start of a meaningful breakout.

According to the roadmap, Ethereum could spend seven to ten days in a distribution phase before falling into a final bottom zone between $1,300 and $900, which he considers the ideal accumulation range. Despite his bearish short-term outlook, Nonzee maintained a long-term price target of $7,000 for ETH.

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