{"id":41478,"date":"2026-04-28T10:30:47","date_gmt":"2026-04-28T10:30:47","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/cryptd.in\/bitcoin-to-125000-arthur-hayes-says-the-setup-is-turning-bullish\/"},"modified":"2026-04-28T10:30:47","modified_gmt":"2026-04-28T10:30:47","slug":"bitcoin-to-125000-arthur-hayes-says-the-setup-is-turning-bullish","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/cryptd.in\/zh_tw\/bitcoin-to-125000-arthur-hayes-says-the-setup-is-turning-bullish\/","title":{"rendered":"Bitcoin To $125,000: Arthur Hayes Says The Setup Is Turning Bullish"},"content":{"rendered":"

Arthur Hayes says Bitcoin\u2019s macro setup is turning bullish again, arguing that wartime spending, US fiscal deficits and bank-led credit creation could outweigh fears of a smaller Federal Reserve balance sheet. Speaking at the Bitcoin 2026 conference in Las Vegas, the BitMEX co-founder said Bitcoin is increasingly trading as a response to \u201cwartime inflation,\u201d not just the artificial intelligence cycle.<\/p>\n

Hayes framed<\/a> the recent shift around a simple premise: governments are openly preparing to spend more on defense, and that spending ultimately has to be financed. In his view, that puts Bitcoin back in familiar territory as a liquidity-sensitive asset with a hard-money narrative.<\/p>\n

\u201cSince the war has started, Bitcoin has outperformed,\u201d Hayes said. \u201cIt outperformed NASDAQ and outperformed the SaaS stocks. And basically, I think that Bitcoin is now focusing on wartime inflation.\u201d<\/p>\n

The core of Hayes\u2019 argument was not that the Fed will suddenly return to explicit quantitative easing. Instead, he focused on what he described as a likely balance-sheet reshuffling between the Fed and the commercial banking system, one that could allow officials to claim the Fed is shrinking while leaving the broader dollar liquidity picture largely intact.<\/p>\n

Bitcoin Vs. The Hawkish Fed Narrative<\/h2>\n

Hayes addressed market concerns around Kevin Warsh<\/a>, whom he said investors have viewed as a potentially hawkish Fed chair because of his criticism of the central bank\u2019s large balance sheet. Hayes said those fears miss the practical constraints facing monetary officials when the US government is still issuing massive amounts of debt.<\/p>\n

\u201cIf the market believes that there\u2019s going to be less dollar liquidity floating around the system because of what Warsh will do with the Fed, then they\u2019ll be bearish on Bitcoin and other risk assets,\u201d Hayes said. \u201cThis is what we\u2019ve seen in the media talking about sort of this hawkish Fed that\u2019s going to come into place after May<\/a> when Warsh takes over. Now, I don\u2019t believe that\u2019s the case.\u201d<\/p>\n

According to Hayes, Warsh would be constrained by the Treasury\u2019s need to keep the bond market functioning. He argued that the Fed cannot pursue balance-sheet reduction in a vacuum when the US government must continue funding large deficits.<\/p>\n

\u201cAt the end of the day, when you\u2019ve issued $38 trillion of debt and you need to fund the government, the Federal Reserve will do what it\u2019s asked to do, which is make sure the market is orderly so that people can buy this debt,\u201d Hayes said.<\/p>\n

The Bank Balance Sheet Trade<\/h2>\n

Hayes\u2019 central mechanism is a swap: commercial banks reduce their holdings of Fed reserves and replace them with Treasuries and repos. In that scenario, the Fed\u2019s balance sheet can become smaller on paper, while the banking system absorbs more government debt.<\/p>\n

\u201cThe point of all this is that the net effect on dollar liquidity is neutral,\u201d Hayes said. \u201cThere\u2019s nothing being sold, there\u2019s nothing being bought. It\u2019s just a swap. It\u2019s purely regulatory fiction in terms of who is allowed to hold what.\u201d<\/p>\n

That distinction matters for Bitcoin because Hayes says investors should care less about the stated size of the Fed\u2019s balance sheet and more about whether the overall system is creating or destroying dollar liquidity. If debt simply migrates from the Fed to regulated bank balance sheets, the impact may be far less restrictive than markets fear.<\/p>\n

Hayes linked that transition to US banking deregulation and specifically cited changes to the Enhanced Supplementary Leverage Ratio, which he said went live on April 1. In his telling, the rule change allows large banks such as JPMorgan and Citibank to absorb more Treasuries and repos, while smaller banks can expand construction and industrial lending.<\/p>\n

He also cited an S&P Global estimate that the ESLR balance-sheet reduction could generate $1.3 trillion of new loans.<\/p>\n

Wartime Spending Becomes The Demand Engine<\/p>\n

Hayes argued that the demand side of the lending cycle is already visible. Defense spending, critical resource production and AI infrastructure are all becoming national-security priorities, he said, creating borrowers with government-backed demand and therefore more attractive credit profiles for banks.<\/p>\n

\u201cWhy will banks have demand for loans? One of the criticisms about this analysis from some of my other macro-fans is that they claim the banking system is not creating enough loans or there\u2019s not enough demand,\u201d Hayes said. \u201cWell, we have a great source of demand that is the US Department of War.\u201d<\/p>\n

He said banks would lend to defense suppliers, resource miners and hyperscalers as AI capital expenditure becomes part of the national-security framework. Hayes described bank lending as especially important because, in his view, it carries a higher multiplier than central bank lending, estimating that around $4 trillion in credit could ultimately be created.<\/p>\n

That is the basis for his renewed bullishness. Hayes said his liquidity chart bottomed<\/a> in November of last year, roughly around the same time as Bitcoin, and argued that after a period of war-driven uncertainty, the market may now be ready to move higher.<\/p>\n

\u201cI think we\u2019ve had a bit of a chop. We\u2019ve had a bit of a war. Now it\u2019s time to break out,\u201d Hayes said. \u201cAnd that\u2019s why I believe Bitcoin is going higher. I think my end of year choice target is like $125,000, whatever, it doesn\u2019t fucking matter, I\u2019m wrong anyways.\u201d<\/p>\n

At press time, Bitcoin traded at $76,628.<\/p>\n

\"Bitcoin<\/p>","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"

Arthur Hayes says Bitcoin\u2019s macro setup is turning bullish again, arguing that wartime spending, US fiscal deficits and bank-led credit creation could outweigh fears of a smaller Federal Reserve balance sheet. Speaking at the Bitcoin 2026 conference in Las Vegas, the BitMEX co-founder said Bitcoin is increasingly trading as a response to \u201cwartime inflation,\u201d not […]<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":1,"featured_media":41480,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"footnotes":""},"categories":[1],"tags":[],"class_list":["post-41478","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-feeds"],"yoast_head":"\nBitcoin To $125,000: Arthur Hayes Says The Setup Is Turning Bullish - cryptd.in<\/title>\n<meta name=\"robots\" content=\"index, follow, max-snippet:-1, max-image-preview:large, max-video-preview:-1\" \/>\n<link rel=\"canonical\" href=\"https:\/\/cryptd.in\/zh_tw\/bitcoin-to-125000-arthur-hayes-says-the-setup-is-turning-bullish\/\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:locale\" content=\"zh_TW\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:type\" content=\"article\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:title\" content=\"Bitcoin To $125,000: Arthur Hayes Says The Setup Is Turning Bullish - cryptd.in\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:description\" content=\"Arthur Hayes says Bitcoin\u2019s macro setup is turning bullish again, arguing that wartime spending, US fiscal deficits and bank-led credit creation could outweigh fears of a smaller Federal Reserve balance sheet. 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