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History Says Caution: BTC Price Eyes Drop to $70K After a Red October

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October began with big promises of price increases, new records, and a bull run’s continuation. And, it delivered in the first week. Bitcoin’s price, which was already on the rebound in late September, broke past $120,000 and its previous all-time high and set a new record of just over $126,000.

But then it all started to go wrong for the entire cryptocurrency market, and BTC was at the forefront of losses, especially on two bloody Fridays. More precisely, the largest digital asset plunged from over $121,000 to $101,000 (on some exchanges) on October 10 and, despite a brief recovery attempt, plummeted again to $104,000 a week later.

The month continued with some more positive developments, such as lower-than-expected inflation numbers for September, rate cuts by the US Federal Reserve, and promising trade deal news on the Washington-Beijing front. These helped BTC recover some ground, but not as much as many expected, and the asset still closed October, a historically highly bullish month, slightly in the red.

Is This a Bad Prophecy?

With a 3.69% decline in October 2025, BTC broke a six-year streak of green months. Data from CoinGlass shows that the asset charted double-digit gains in five of those previous six Octobers, with the only exception being the bear market in 2022.

We need to rewind the clocks to October 2018 to see the previous such month with a price decline, which was quite similar to the 2025 edition. At the time, BTC closed with a 3.83% drop. However, what followed was quite painful and, if history repeats, suggests that BTC could plunge to as low as $70,000 in November.

$70K Next?

In November 2018, the month after the previous red October, bitcoin’s price plunged by 36.57%. The 2018 bear market was particularly harmful as the cryptocurrency culminated with a dump below $3,000 in December, which also saw a 5% decline.

Of course, the landscape now is entirely different. BTC is no longer just a “fake internet coin;” instead, it’s a multi-trillion-dollar behemoth backed by institutions, prominent investors, and even governments. Also, we know that history is not an adequate price prediction tool, but it’s still worth observing given BTC’s movements in the previous November that followed a bloody October.

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