cryptd.in

另类 LinkedIn 适合加密人才

Bitcoin’s Valuation Model Hints At $500K Cycle Average, Analyst Says

-

由

cryptd.in
于

Bitcoin is trading near $67,300, well off its recent high of $74,000. One well-known analyst says that dip barely matters — he’s looking at a cycle average closer to half a million dollars.

A Model Built On Scarcity

PlanB, the pseudonymous analyst behind the Stock-to-Flow model, says Bitcoin’s price during the current 2024–2028 halving cycle could average around $500,000, with a range stretching from $250,000 to $1 million.

The model is built on a simple premise: as Bitcoin’s supply grows more slowly — thanks to halving events that cut mining rewards roughly every four years — and demand holds steady or rises, the price should follow.

Reports indicate that PlanB is careful to frame the figure as a cycle average, not a ceiling or a guaranteed peak.

比特币 halvings reduce the number of new coins entering circulation. The most recent one took place in April 2024. Historically, each halving has been followed by a significant price run. That pattern is the backbone of PlanB’s argument.

Not Everyone Is Buying It

Crypto analyst Bobby A puts his estimate at $200,000 to $250,000 by 2026 or 2027 — still a major jump from current levels, but nowhere near PlanB’s midpoint.

According to Bobby A, Stock-to-Flow works as a rough long-term guide but falls short when used to pin down specific price targets in complex markets.

He argues the model captures Bitcoin’s broad growth story without accounting for the many variables that move prices in real time.

That skepticism is not without basis. Stock-to-Flow drew sharp criticism after 比特币 failed to sustain the price levels the model projected during the 2020–2024 cycle.

Some analysts wrote off the model entirely. Others say it was never meant to work as a precise forecasting tool to begin with — a nuance that often gets lost in headline-driven coverage.

What’s Weighing On Bitcoin Now

Several outside pressures have contributed to Bitcoin’s recent pullback. Geopolitical tensions and shifting inflows into spot Bitcoin exchange-traded funds — which won US regulatory approval in early 2024 — have added to short-term volatility.

Data shows that ETF inflows, which helped push Bitcoin to record highs earlier this year, have been inconsistent in recent months.

Reports note that many analysts view the current period as a consolidation phase following the strong rally that carried Bitcoin above $72,000. Whether that consolidation leads to a renewed push higher — or signals a longer plateau — remains an open question.

PlanB’s $500,000 average would require Bitcoin to climb more than seven times its current price before the cycle ends. That’s a large number. But in a market that went from under $20,000 to over $73,000 in roughly 18 months, some investors say stranger things have happened.

Featured image from Free3D.com, chart from TradingView

评论

發佈留言

發佈留言必須填寫的電子郵件地址不會公開。 必填欄位標示為 *

最新信息

热门类别

zh_TW 繁體中文
zh_TW 繁體中文 en_US English ro_RO Română et Eesti ko_KR 한국어 ja 日本語 ru_RU Русский de_DE Deutsch es_ES Español zh_CN 简体中文 fr_FR Français pt_PT Português it_IT Italiano pl_PL Polski tr_TR Türkçe nl_NL Nederlands id_ID Bahasa Indonesia el Ελληνικά uk Українська bg_BG Български cs_CZ Čeština fi Suomi hu_HU Magyar lv Latviešu valoda lt_LT Lietuvių kalba nb_NO Norsk bokmål sk_SK Slovenčina sl_SI Slovenščina sv_SE Svenska

搜索网站

热门故事

标签

#AlexeyPertsev (1) #BidenCryptoBan (1) #BidenElection (1) #BinanceVsCoinbase (1) #Bitcoin (425) #BitcoinETF (3) #itcoinFundamentals (1) # 比特币处理 (1) # 比特币价格 (5) # 比特币价格水平 (1) #BitcoinPump (1) #BitcoinReserve (1) #BitcoinSurge (1) #itcoinTop (1) #Bitfinex (1) #Bitwise (1) #BracebridgeCapital (1) #BRC20Tokens (1) #BTC 收购 (1) 1TP5 看涨预测 (1) #BullishSentiment (1) #C 中国矿业 (1) #CPIPreview (1) #CryptoAsset (2) #CryptoBattle (1) #CryptoBoom (1) #CryptoExpert (1) #CryptoInsights (1) #CryptoMania (1) #CryptoMarket (4) #CryptoPrediction (1) #CryptoPredictions (1) #CryptoRegulation (2) #CryptoTakeoff (1) #CryptoTiming (1) #CryptoTips (1) #CryptoTreasury (1) #CryptoUncertainty (1) #DerivativeJump (1) #Dogecoin (73) #ogecoinGains (1) #ogecoinVolume (1) #DutchCourt (2) #ECommerce (1) #El萨尔瓦多比特币 (1) #E以太坊 (69) #EthereumPain (1) #E以太坊价格 (1) #ExpertOpinion (1) #FedRateCut (1) #FiatCurrency (1) #F 财务影响 (1) #F 财务隐私 (1) #FirmShutdown (1) #FrozenAccounts (1) #IllicitFunds (1) #InflationData (1) #Investment (1) #InvestmentLoss (1) #JapaneseFirm (1) #L LegalAction (1) #L 法律影响 (1) #Legislation (1) #LightningNetwork (1) #M 市场分析 (3) #M 市场监测 (1) #M 市场预测 (1) #M 市场预测 (1) #M 市场投影 (1) #M 市场支持 (1) #M 市场波动性 (1) #M 婚姻 (1) #MemeCoin (5) #MemeCoins (2) #Miner 盈利能力 (1) #M 洗钱 (2) #MtGox (4) #朝鲜加密货币 (1) #诺沃格拉茨预测 (1) 1TP5价格里程碑 (1) #P 价格预测 (2) 1TP5价格问题 (1) #PriceSurge (1) #PrisonSentence (1) # 量化分析 (1) #R 监管压力 (1) #SECA Anti-Crypto (1) #ShibaInu (5) #SocialBuzz (1) #T 技术分析 (1) #Toncoin (3) #T 龙卷风现金 (3) #T 龙卷风现金发展项目 (1) #T 龙卷风现金开发者 (1) #UKCrypto (1) #UpsidePotential (1) #USCongress (1) #WyomingLand (1) #XRPPrice (1) #XRPupswing (1)

实用链接

我发现了一些有用的链接，希望与大家分享。