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Bitcoin’s Brief Rally Isn’t The End Of The Bear Market, Analysts Say

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Exhausted sellers may be giving Bitcoin some breathing room — but analysts say that’s a long way from a recovery.

US Buyers Return, Pushing Prices Off Multi-Week Lows

Data from on-chain analytics firm CryptoQuant shows the Coinbase Bitcoin Premium — a measure of US-based buying demand — has flipped from its most negative readings in early February to its highest point since October.

That shift helped carry 比特币 to a one-month high of $74,000 on Thursday, briefly touching the 50-day exponential moving average. It didn’t last.

By Friday morning, the price had dropped more than $3,000, sliding back below $71,000 as momentum faded almost as fast as it built.

The rally came alongside a wave of ETF inflows and what Nick Ruck, director of LVRG Research, called “renewed risk appetite.” But even as buyers stepped in, the broader conditions hadn’t changed.

Ruck said that the advance “quickly faced headwinds,” with macro uncertainty and softer economic signals pulling the market back down.

Bear Market Indicators Remain At Historic Lows

CryptoQuant’s Bull Score Index — a composite reading of Bitcoin’s technical and fundamental health — sits at just 10 out of 100. That places it, by the firm’s own assessment, deep in negative territory.

Reports from the firm say the number hasn’t moved despite the recent price action. “Even after the recent price rally, fundamental and technical indicators still point to a bear market environment,” CryptoQuant stated Thursday.

The firm was blunt about what the brief climb likely represents: a short-term release of pressure, not a turning point.

Unrealized losses among traders and long-term holders had reached levels last seen in July 2022 before the recent easing. That kind of exhaustion can slow a slide without reversing it.

One signal pointing to easing pressure emerged Friday, when analysts said market momentum appears to be approaching a “critical shift.”

According to their assessment, Bitcoin may be moving out of a phase marked by peak negative momentum — a stage that has often preceded broader changes in market direction. What follows that shift, and how quickly it unfolds, remains uncertain.

Macro Headwinds Keep A Lid On Any Optimism

February nonfarm payrolls data, expected to show a slowdown, loomed as an added weight on sentiment. Analysts pointed to those “softer macro signals” as a reason cryptocurrencies remain open to fresh downside.

Liquidity conditions had been supportive enough to spark the relief move, but not strong enough to sustain it.

Bitcoin’s brief climb above $74,000 drew attention. The pullback drew more. With the Bull Score Index anchored near the floor and macro conditions still unsettled, analysts are watching for whether US buying demand holds — or fades just like the rally did.

Featured image from Defenders of Wildlife, chart from TradingView

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