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Altcoins Echo 2020 Rally Setup as Wedge Shatters

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Altcoins are flashing technical signals not seen since 2020, with a multi-year wedge breakout and a looming MACD crossover drawing attention across crypto markets this week.

The setup has fueled renewed speculation that a broader altcoin rally could be forming.

Breakout Pattern and Momentum Signals Return

Analyst Mark Chadwick 突出显示 the signals in question in a post on X on April 8, where he claimed that altcoins were “starting to look insane.” His analysis is centered on a falling wedge pattern across several years on the TOTAL2 chart, which tracks the combined market cap of altcoins minus Bitcoin.

The structure, which has formed since the market peak in 2021, shows a prolonged downtrend with weakening selling pressure, and according to Chadwick, altcoins have now broken above this wedge, a move usually considered by market watchers as a reversal signal.

In addition, the analyst pointed out that the MACD indicator is also approaching a bullish crossover, and if confirmed, it would mirror a previous setup in 2020 that triggered the last major altcoin rally.

“If MACD flips green and confirms the crossover in the coming weeks… Follow the arrow for directions. Higher,” he wrote.

There were also others echoing similar views, with one of them, Crypto Patel, noting on the same day that altcoins are bouncing off a long-term trendline that started from lows recorded in 2022, adding that “the bottom is in.”

Meanwhile, CoinGecko’s data from earlier today showed that the market was getting stronger in the short term. Several altcoins, such as Zcash (ZEC), LayerZero (ZRO), Ethena (ENA), and Arbitrum (ARB), all saw their prices rise by more than 10% in the last 24 hours.

The wider market also turned higher, with the total crypto market cap going up by more than 4% to about $2.5 trillion, and Bitcoin going back up above $72,000 following gains of more than 5%.

Open interest has also risen by over 7% to $113 billion per CoinGlass, and it came alongside an increase in liquidations, suggesting heightened speculative activity.

Mixed Backdrop After Months of Weakness

The recent optimism has come after a rather difficult stretch for altcoins. Data published toward the end of March showed that over 40% of tokens were trading near all-time lows, which was a deeper drawdown than during the previous bear market. At the time, analysts blamed the situation on liquidity fragmentation, with tens of millions of tokens competing for capital.

Even in the past week, conditions were still uneven, with BTC turning down yesterday near $70,000, causing several altcoins, including AVAX and ADA, to drop.

On the other hand, analyst Ash Crypto recently pointed out that the ALT/BTC charts are gaining momentum, with multiple green MACD bars for the first time in years. They did not, however, say that a full altcoin cycle was underway, stating that factors like Bitcoin’s dominance and overall liquidity still need to change.

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