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Bitcoin’s Coinbase Premium Has Been Negative for 60 Days – Why It Matters

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The primary cryptocurrency has traded at a varying but consistent discount on Coinbase compared to Binance for roughly two months, highlighting a lack of US spot demand.

On one side, this is considered bearish as the US is arguably the largest market by a long shot. On the other, though, it’s rather positive for BTC that it has maintained key price levels even without its strongest buying ally.

Coinbase Premium Reaches New Record

Aside from a few very brief, usually hourly upticks, the metric has been deep in the red for over 60 days now. The previous record was also from this year (between January and February), but it was for a more modest 40 days. 加密土豆 recently 报告 that the lack of spot demand from the US is among the biggest reasons behind the cryptocurrency’s price collapse from over $82,000 in mid-May to under $57,000 in early July.

The reason for this is the significance of the Coinbase Premium Index. Since it measures the difference between BTC’s prices on Coinbase and Binance, it indicates whether spot demand for the asset is higher or lower in the US. Going two months below zero for the first time ever clearly indicates the Americans are not inclined to pour fresh capital – or at least not more than their international counterparts.

But there’s more. Coinbase has historically been a useful proxy for institutional investors as it’s the preferred exchange for many US asset managers, corporations, and even ETF participants. Translation: institutions are not rushing in to use Coinbase to buy more BTC.

Reason For Concern?

Well, not necessarily. Yes, BTC indeed dropped by over $20,000 in a month and a half, but the Coinbase Premium Index was just one of many reasons. Besides, many US investors now get BTC exposure through the ETFs, which might not be reflected in the metric the way it used to be before these products launched in early 2024.

The index is best viewed as a sentiment indicator rather than a standalone trading signal. It currently shows that US investors tend to stay more on the sidelines than those using Binance, which appears logical given the AI boom in the country as well as the growing uncertainty around the war, inflation, and the Fed’s policy.

Nevertheless, it’s also worth pointing out the other side of the coin. Bitcoin is down by roughly 50% from its peak, but it has managed to remain above $60,000 for most of this bear cycle aside from a few brief dips. This means that even without large US capital entering the market, the cryptocurrency has shown rather impressive resilience.

Of course, it would be much appreciated if American investors return soon, but that’s unlikely to happen until at least a portion of the aforementioned uncertainty is resolved.

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