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These 3 Missing Pieces Are Holding Bitcoin Back, Says Analyst

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Despite gaining over 10% since its recent multi-year low at under $58,000, bitcoin is still not out of the woods yet as the bears continue to dominate, said Ali Martinez.

Meanwhile, fellow analyst Ted Pillows believes BTC, alongside the S&P 500, is poised for more losses, but the cryptocurrency is poised to outperform the index.

Still Bear-Dominated Market

In its most recent post on BTC’s market structure, Martinez outlined the three critical factors that have to change to overcome its current state. First, it’s the aSOPR (Adjusted Spent Output Profit Ratio), an on-chain metric measuring whether bitcoin investors are selling their units at a profit or a loss on average. It continues to hover below 1, showing that most sales are concluded by holders realizing losses.

“The first technical confirmation of a trend reversal from bearish to bullish will be the aSOPR metric crossing back above zero,” the analyst said.

The second is the Puell Multiple, which measures miner profitability by dividing the daily dollar value of newly issued BTC by its 365-day moving average. It shows whether miners are experiencing extreme income stress, as seen earlier this year during one of the largest miner walkouts.

The last factor brought up by Martinez was the Reserve Risk Multiple. The on-chain technical indicator demonstrates the confidence of long-term holders relative to its price, and it’s also below 1. Bitcoin would require a “confirmed break on the aSOPR, followed by zero-line breakouts on the Puell Multiple and Reserve Risk Multiple” to validate the start of a new bull market.

$82K and Its Importance

Michaël van de Poppe believes $82,000 holds particular significance in the current BTC structure, as the 50-week Moving Average is positioned around that level. Historically, this key MA has served as major resistance, and bitcoin solidified the end of its previous bear market only after it reclaimed that line.

At first, BTC would have to break past the 21-week MA (currently around $75,000) before heading toward the more important 50-week MA, said van de Poppe.

Separately, Ted Pillows focused on bitcoin’s relation and correlation with the S&P 500, claiming that both asset classes will “drop over the coming months.” However, he expects the cryptocurrency to emerge victorious after the final leg down. For now, though, the reality is quite different, as the index is up by over 10% this year, while BTC is down by almost 27%.

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