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Bitcoin CVDD Data Points To Possible Bottom Amid Market Mayhem – Detail

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Bitcoin price performance in June has gotten off to a rocky start, with prices now down 50% from the market’s all-time high. In the last week alone, the premier cryptocurrency has declined by 16%, forcing the price to around $60,000 for the first time since February. 

Notably, the heavy market loss has coincided with the dominant Bitcoin treasury Strategy offloading $2.5 million in BTC to manage its balance sheet, despite initial chants of “never sell”. Moreover, the upcoming IPO of Elon Musk’s SpaceX is garnering much momentum as a favorable investment at the moment. Using relevant on-chain data, market analyst Rafael, with the X username n3ocortex, has highlighted a market bottom range amid the current persistent downtrend.

Historical Data Supports Potential Dip To $35,000 Before Recovery

After failing to break past the $82,000 barrier in early May, Bitcoin slipped into another corrective wave, resulting in a 24% price loss to date. In performing an in-depth on-chain analysis, Rafael reveals the asset’s recent decline had pushed prices below the median holder’s breakeven level for the first time since May 2022. Meanwhile, Bitcoin has also crashed below the 200WMA, exposing the asset to a key, deeper cost-basis ladder. The Cumulative Value Days Destroyed (CVDD), valued at $46,200, represents one of these bases and is commonly used to identify long-term market bottoms.

According to Rafael, previous market bottoms have usually occurred between the 1.05x-1.18x range of the CVDD. Based on this historical standard, the likely higher market bottom zone for Bitcoin lies between $46,000 and $54,000. On the other hand, a worst-case scenario points to a bottom between $35,000 – $40,000. For context, Bitcoin has only entered this deeper market zone on less than 3% of trading days in this market cycle. 

Notably, Rafael also points out that Bitcoin’s cycle drawdowns have become progressively shallower, declining from 85% in the first cycle to 77% in the previous cycle and roughly 50% in the current cycle. While this trend of market maturation does not eliminate the possibility of Bitcoin revisiting a capitulation scenario, the weight of the evidence currently supports the higher bottom range zone.

Bitcoin Market Overview 

At press time, Bitcoin trades at $60,537, reflecting a 4.7% decline in the past 24 hours. Meanwhile, daily trading volume is down 4.69% to $1.21 trillion. 

Alongside the CVDD, other important on-chain metrics revealed by Rafael include the Realized price ($54,000), Balanced price ($40,000), and the Delta price ($35,000). To re-establish bullish intent for a recovery, the seasoned analyst explains that Bitcoin must reclaim the price zone between $75,000 and $78,000, where the STH cost basis, True Market Mean, and the 200DMA converge. 

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