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Will Markets Move When $2B Crypto Options Expire Today? 

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Around 16,500 Bitcoin options contracts will expire on Friday, Feb. 21, and they have a notional value of roughly $1.6 billion.

This week’s expiry event is smaller than last week’s and one of the tiniest of the year, which means there will be virtually no impact on spot markets, which have been range-bound for most of the week.

Bitcoin Options Expiry

This week’s tranche of Bitcoin options contracts has a put/call ratio of 0.75, meaning that there are slightly more call (long) contracts expiring than puts (shorts).

Moreover, open interest (OI), or the value or number of BTC options contracts yet to expire, still remains highest at the $120,000 strike price, which is $1.8 billion, according to Deribit.

There is also around $1.2 billion in OI at the $110,000 strike price, as derivatives traders continue to speculate that BTC prices will rise in the longer term. Earlier this week, crypto derivatives provider Greeks Live said sentiment was “cautiously bearish,” with low volatility frustrating traders.

“Next week’s options priced at 40% volatility again with front-month contracts falling below, indicating potential market weakness,” it added.

Deribit concurred in its weekly Insights report, stating, “Strong directional sentiment in derivatives markets has waned in response to the largely sideways moves in spot [markets] over the last two weeks.”

Funding rates for both majors, BTC and ETH, remain close to zero after Ether saw a strong negative spike earlier in the month, it reported before adding that volatility in Ethereum retains a premium over Bitcoin.

Bitcoin OI by expiry. Source: Deribit

Around 153,000 Ethereum contracts are also expiring today, with a notional value of $420 million and a put/call ratio of 0.48. This brings Friday’s combined crypto options expiry notional value to around $2 billion.

Crypto Market Outlook

Markets have shown minor gains towards the end of the week, with total capitalization reaching $3.35 trillion. However, zooming out, they still remain at the lower bounds of a three-month sideways trading channel.

比特币 hit an intraday and two-week high of $98,750 during early trading in Asia on Friday morning. However, it faced resistance there, as it has done twice before, and pulled back slightly at the time of writing.

Ethereum has been a little choppier over the past 24 hours, spiking to $2,767 before pulling back to $2,744 at the time of writing. ETH has been trading sideways since it dumped below $3,000 in early February.

The altcoins were generally in the green this Friday morning, with larger gains for Solana, Sui, Avalanche, and Litecoin as ETF hope grows.

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