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$200K Bitcoin (BTC) This Year? On-Chain Metrics Make a Strong Case

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Bitcoin has entered a technical correction phase after reaching an all-time high of $123,400 on July 14. The crypto asset is down by almost 7% as it currently trades near $114,000. The drop is attributed to macroeconomic pressures such as inflation and tariffs, bearish technical signals, and liquidation events.

Data suggests that Q4 historically benefits Bitcoin, and after a strong July, bulls are hopeful for another breakout.

Bitcoin’s Technical Dip

CryptoQuant views the decline as primarily technical and said that the market is still in a broader price discovery cycle. This cycle, which reflects market attempts to determine Bitcoin’s fair value through supply and demand, could push the price toward the $200,000 level by the end of Q4 2025.

BTC has traditionally seen strong performance in Q4, and current market conditions could help continue that seasonal pattern. Binance’s on-chain data reveals large stablecoin reserves. This points to a considerable amount of sidelined capital that could soon flow back into the market, potentially boosting Bitcoin and prominent altcoins like BNB. This, in turn, may set the stage for a potential altseason.

The current reflexive relationship between Bitcoin and emerging treasury investors could aid its price discovery in Q4. But whether altcoins will follow suit remains uncertain amid growing market crowding. Nonetheless, institutional interest may further boost Bitcoin’s upward trajectory in the coming months.

Adding to this narrative, Glassnode noted that Bitcoin’s $109K-$116K range is steadily filling during price dips, which reflects continued investor interest. The consistent staircase-like pattern suggests steady accumulation. Additionally, minimal selling between $118K-$120K means that investors in this range are largely holding, which indicates confidence in long-term price appreciation.

Big Bets On Year-End Rally

Several market watchers remain optimistic about a strong year-end comeback despite the current pullback. TeraHash, for one, recently predicted a price range of $130K-$150K by December, citing ETF inflows, potential Fed rate cuts, and upcoming regulatory clarity from the SEC and MiCA framework. Important catalysts include continued ETF inflows, Fed policy easing in September, and full implementation of Europe’s MiCA framework.

Meanwhile, on-chain data shows surging mining difficulty and geographic expansion, while Hashrate-as-a-Service models attract institutions seeking exposure with less risk.

Bullish projections also came from Fundstrat’s Tom Lee and American venture capital investor Tim Draper, who forecast $250K by year-end. Even more aggressive predictions from Charles Schwab and Mike Novogratz place Bitcoin at $1 million by the end of 2025.

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