{"id":36935,"date":"2025-11-14T02:00:28","date_gmt":"2025-11-14T02:00:28","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/cryptd.in\/whos-selling-bitcoin-fidelity-research-boss-breaks-it-down\/"},"modified":"2025-11-14T02:00:28","modified_gmt":"2025-11-14T02:00:28","slug":"whos-selling-bitcoin-fidelity-research-boss-breaks-it-down","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/cryptd.in\/zh\/whos-selling-bitcoin-fidelity-research-boss-breaks-it-down\/","title":{"rendered":"Who\u2019s Selling Bitcoin? Fidelity Research Boss Breaks It Down"},"content":{"rendered":"<p>Visible buying from spot bitcoin ETPs and corporates has not translated into decisive upside, leaving traders to ask a blunt question: who is supplying the market?<\/p>\n<p>For Chris Kuiper, CFA, vice president of research at Fidelity Digital Assets, the <a href=\"https:\/\/x.com\/ChrisJKuiper\/status\/1988608974590009629\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener nofollow\">answer<\/a> is clear. \u201c \u2018Who is selling?\u2019 is the number one question I\u2019ve been getting regarding bitcoin\u2019s continued price pressure against a backdrop of visible buying,\u201d he wrote on X on November 12. \u201cI\u2019m not unique in suggesting it\u2019s the long-term holders (or HODLers).\u201d<\/p>\n<p>Kuiper points to a simple but powerful on-chain gauge: the percentage of outstanding bitcoin that has not moved for at least one year. Glassnode\u2019s \u201cPercent of Supply Last Active 1+ Years Ago\u201d rises in bear markets as coins age in place and investors sit on unrealized losses, then typically falls sharply when bull markets let those same investors exit into strength.<\/p>\n<p>\u201cAs you can see in the chart below, this line goes up during <a href=\"https:\/\/www.newsbtc.com\/news\/crypto-under-pressure-emerging-data-suggests-potential-bear-market-ahead\/\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener \">bear markets<\/a> \u2026 and then usually a dramatic decline as these longer-term holders sell into the strength of a bull market,\u201d Kuiper explained. What stands out to him today is that \u201cwith this cycle\u201d the drawdown is \u201ca relatively gentle slope down.\u201d When bitcoin hit new highs earlier this year, the long-term-holder line \u201cdidn\u2019t plunge,\u201d he said. Instead, the market has been experiencing \u201ca consistent slow bleed as the market has slowly moved sideways and up.\u201d<\/p>\n<p><img decoding=\"async\" data-recalc-dims=\"1\" class=\"size-full wp-image-853297\" src=\"https:\/\/www.newsbtc.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/11\/G5fgYtPXgAAc2iB-1.jpg?resize=1024%2C576\" alt=\"Percent of Bitcoin supply last active 1+ years ago\" width=\"1024\" height=\"576\" loading=\"lazy\" \/><\/p>\n<p>That slow bleed aligns with what Kuiper says he hears from the client side. \u201cBitcoin\u2019s performance has recently lagged gold\u2019s, even the S&amp;P, and people are getting tired,\u201d he wrote. Many investors, in his view, had been positioned for a textbook four-year cycle blow-off and were \u201cwaiting to sell into the historically strong <a href=\"https:\/\/www.newsbtc.com\/bitcoin-news\/bitcoin-price-poised-for-a-bullish-november-key-catalysts-that-cant-be-ignored\/\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener \">seasonality of October and now November<\/a>.\u201d<\/p>\n<p>When October\u2019s typical strength did not materialize and year-end approached, \u201clong-term holders are looking to make year-end tax and positional changes, calling it a day with the gains they already have.\u201d<\/p>\n<p>The Glassnode chart shows how different this looks from past cycles. In the <a href=\"https:\/\/www.newsbtc.com\/news\/bitcoin\/bitcoin-price-2017-2021\/\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener \">2017\u20132018 run-up<\/a> and subsequent reversal, the share of coins last active more than a year ago rolled over violently as price spiked and then collapsed. In the current cycle, the curve that represents long-term-holder supply has been trending lower since 2023, but without the vertical collapse normally associated with euphoric distribution.<\/p>\n<p>On-chain analyst Julio Moreno of CryptoQuant added another layer by reframing the same dynamic as \u201c1-year inactive supply drawdown\u201d in percentage points of total supply. \u201cHere\u2019s another way to visualize this,\u201d he replied to Kuiper, \u201cby looking at the 1-year inactive supply drawdown in terms of % of total Bitcoin supply.\u201d<\/p>\n<p><img decoding=\"async\" data-recalc-dims=\"1\" class=\"size-full wp-image-853293\" src=\"https:\/\/www.newsbtc.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/11\/G5mDWdkWEAA_irz-1.jpg?resize=1024%2C576\" alt=\"Bitcoin 1-year inactive supply drawdown\" width=\"1024\" height=\"576\" loading=\"lazy\" \/><\/p>\n<p>Moreno quantified the last three major cycles. In 2017\u20132018, 1-year inactive supply declined by about 20 percentage points of total supply. In the 2021 cycle, the drawdown was around 10 percentage points. In the 2024\u20132025 period so far, the decline is again roughly 10 percentage points. The CryptoQuant chart, which uses an inverted scale, renders that as a purple wave that rises as more long-dormant coins are spent or reallocated.<\/p>\n<p>This means that long-term holders have already released a volume of supply comparable to the 2021 cycle, even if it is still well below the 2017\u20132018 peak. What differs is the tempo. Rather than a short burst of profit-taking at the top, the market has absorbed roughly a 10-percentage-point reduction in inactive supply over a longer, choppier price path.<\/p>\n<p>Kuiper welcomed the alternative visualization, replying simply: \u201cGreat chart!\u201d He also made clear what he will be monitoring from here. \u201cI will be watching this slope along with some other metrics to gauge seller exhaustion,\u201d he said. For now, he argues that \u201cthe positive fundamental developments and lackluster price action continue to diverge.\u201d<\/p>\n<p>At press time, BTC traded at $102,609.<\/p>\n<p><img decoding=\"async\" data-recalc-dims=\"1\" class=\"size-full wp-image-853392\" src=\"https:\/\/www.newsbtc.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/11\/BTCUSDT_2025-11-13_14-48-24.png?resize=1024%2C473\" alt=\"\u6bd4\u7279\u5e01\u4ef7\u683c\" width=\"1024\" height=\"473\" loading=\"lazy\" \/><\/p>","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p>Visible buying from spot bitcoin ETPs and corporates has not translated into decisive upside, leaving traders to ask a blunt question: who is supplying the market? For Chris Kuiper, CFA, vice president of research at Fidelity Digital Assets, the answer is clear. \u201c \u2018Who is selling?\u2019 is the number one question I\u2019ve been getting regarding [&hellip;]<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":1,"featured_media":36937,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"footnotes":""},"categories":[1],"tags":[],"class_list":["post-36935","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-feeds"],"yoast_head":"<!-- This site is optimized with the Yoast SEO plugin v27.3 - https:\/\/yoast.com\/product\/yoast-seo-wordpress\/ -->\n<title>Who\u2019s Selling Bitcoin? 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