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为什么比特币减半还未被预估？专家

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In his latest video update on YouTube, renowned crypto analyst Rekt Capital delved into the complex dynamics surrounding Bitcoin’s halving events, articulating a compelling case for why the market has yet to fully price in the halving which took place on April 19. Drawing on historical data and patterns, Rekt Capital provided an in-depth analysis of the cyclical nature of Bitcoin’s price movements post-halving, suggesting that substantial growth phases still lie ahead.

Why The Bitcoin Halving Is Not Priced In

Rekt Capital began by revisiting the historical impact of Bitcoin halvings, which occur approximately every four years and reduce the block reward received by miners by half. This constriction in supply, if demand remains constant or increases, typically leads to a significant price increase. “The Bitcoin halving is not priced in,” Rekt Capital asserted, pointing out that each previous halving led to a rally that not only reached but also surpassed previous all-time highs.

“The halving every four years always precedes a fantastic surge in Bitcoin’s price action towards new all-time highs,” he noted. This consistent pattern forms a compelling narrative that the post-halving market dynamics are predictable to a degree, yet complex enough to remain partially unanticipated by the market. “Two phases remain in the cycle: The Post-Halving Re-Accumulation phase (red) and the Parabolic Rally phase (green),” he stated.

Focusing on the reaccumulation phase that traditionally follows each halving, Rekt Capital highlighted that this phase typically lasts about 160 days. During this period, the market often sees a consolidation of price before a breakout leads to a parabolic rally. “We are currently in a reaccumulation period again in this cycle. This is post-halving reaccumulation,” he stated, emphasizing the significance of this phase in setting the stage for the next bull run.

The analyst elaborated on the nature of these cycles, noting deviations in the current trends compared to past cycles. “This cycle is exhibiting an accelerated rate, with new all-time highs appearing 260 days prior to the halving, a first in Bitcoin’s history,” he explained. Such deviations suggest that while historical patterns provide a roadmap, each cycle can introduce new dynamics that affect market behavior.

Rekt Capital did not overlook the potential risks and market corrections that could occur. He warned of the initial rejection often seen after reaching the high range of post-halving prices, a trend noted in previous cycles. “Every time we’ve seen an initial attempt to get to the range high resistance after the halving, that first attempt after the halving is one that rejects,” he explained. This observation is crucial for investors expecting immediate gains post-halving, as it tempers overly optimistic expectations with a realistic view of possible short-term retracements.

The analyst also addressed the issue of diminishing returns in successive cycles, a factor that seasoned Bitcoin investors watch closely. While each cycle’s peak has historically been higher than the last, the rate of growth has slowed. “If this was a one-to-one extension from what we saw in the previous cycle, getting us to $250,000 might be unrealistic this time around, and we are probably looking at a more subdued increase,” he predicted.

Nonetheless, Rekt Capital maintained a bullish outlook for the long term, suggesting that while the explosive growth rates of early cycles might not repeat, the overall upward trajectory of Bitcoin’s price post-halving remains intact. “This is going to be the most parabolic phase of the cycle where we see those gains come very quickly in a short space of time,” he concluded, affirming the significant opportunities that lie ahead for Bitcoin investors.

At press time, BTC traded at $68,561.

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