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Ethereum Sees 77K ETH Moved to Derivatives – Market Prepping for Another Drop?

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Although Ethereum has shown a slight rebound recently, its overall 2025 performance remains underwhelming. So far this year, the altcoin has shed over 50% of its value.

Current on-chain data indicates that ETH could be heading for yet another downward price move.

ETH Price at Risk

According to CryptoQuant’s latest macro and on-chain 分析, derivative exchange inflows surged by over 77,000 ETH on April 16th – the largest single-day net inflow observed in recent months. The sharp uptick follows two previous inflow events on March 26 and April 3, both of which coincided with painful declines in Ethereum’s price.

The pattern, validated by historical data, points toward increased hedging or short-selling activity as large players move ETH onto derivative platforms.

Interestingly, the inflow spike aligns with growing global macroeconomic tensions, notably escalating trade friction between the US and China. Beijing’s latest retaliatory tariffs on US agricultural and tech goods have unsettled risk markets across the world.

In past episodes, similar geopolitical stressors have prompted a shift away from riskier assets like cryptocurrencies and into safe-haven investments such as US Treasuries and the dollar, compounding bearish sentiment across digital assets.

Ethereum, already trading near multi-month lows around $1,500, could face additional pressure if the inflow-driven trend continues. CryptoQuant’s data highlighted the significance of these derivative exchange moves, and focused on three key inflection points – March 26, April 3, and now April 16 – each followed by visible price weakness.

Analysts suggest that the size and timing of the latest inflow likely indicate institutional entities positioning for further downside. As both macro headwinds and on-chain signals flash red, Ethereum’s near-term trajectory appears increasingly precarious.

Amidst this macroeconomic uncertainty and increased ETH inflows to derivative exchanges, Ethereum whales have offloaded approximately 143,000 ETH over the past week. The sell-off trend may indicate a broader bearish sentiment, which could trigger further selling pressure in the coming days.

Low ETH Fees Signal Opportunity?

Despite ongoing macro and on-chain pressures, Santiment pointed to one contrarian signal worth noting – Ethereum transaction fees have fallen to a five-year low, averaging just $0.168. This drop reflected lower network activity, as fewer users are transacting or interacting with smart contracts like DeFi and NFTs. Since fees are based on network demand, low usage leads to cheaper transactions.

Santiment noted that from a trading perspective, historically low fees like these often precede price rebounds, which makes current levels generally considered lower risk for buyers. While not a guaranteed signal, fee levels under $1 typically suggest decreased crowd interest – an environment where past trends have sometimes marked price turning points.

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