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Bitcoin Price Analysis: Classic Bull Trap Emerges After BTC’s Record High

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Bitcoin has recently experienced heightened volatility by setting a fresh all-time high. However, the price has quickly reversed, indicating a bull trap, increasing the likelihood of a sideways consolidation within the $116K-$124K range.

Technical Analysis

By ShayanMarkets

The Daily Chart

On the daily timeframe, Bitcoin buyers successfully pushed the asset above its previous all-time high, recording a new peak at $124.4K. However, this breakout was short-lived, as heavy selling pressure swiftly reversed the move, trapping late long entries, a classic bull trap.

The retracement has now brought BTC back toward a key confluence support zone around $118K, aligning closely with the ascending channel’s lower boundary. This area will be crucial in determining whether the long-term bullish trend remains intact. A decisive breakdown from this level could open the path toward deeper supports, while a rebound here could reignite bullish momentum.

The 4-Hour Chart

In the 4-hour timeframe, the recent action clearly shows a classic liquidity hunt, price swept above the recent high (BSL), triggering breakout buys and stop-loss orders, before reversing sharply. Subsequently, the asset experienced a cascade, breaking below the most recent swing low (MSS), signaling the early signs of a potential market structure shift.

Currently, Bitcoin appears to be consolidating within a range between $116K and $124K. Until price breaks convincingly out of this range, short-term movements are likely to remain choppy, with traders focusing on liquidity pools at both range boundaries.

On-chain Analysis

By ShayanMarkets

Recent on-chain data shows a sharp spike in Binance’s Mean Inflow (7-day SMA), reaching one of the highest readings in recent months. This metric tracks the average amount of BTC being deposited to the exchange, and such jumps often align with preparation for selling, collateralizing margin positions, or institutional portfolio rebalancing.

Sustained high inflows indicate that more BTC is being transferred from external wallets into Binance’s trading wallets. Historically, significant inflow surges — when not met with equally strong buying demand have often preceded periods of short-term selling pressure.

Supporting this signal, positive netflow (inflows exceeding outflows) has also risen, confirming that Binance’s total BTC balance is increasing rather than being offset by withdrawals. Without matching spot demand, this imbalance can tilt the market toward short-term downside volatility, particularly if large holders are preparing to sell or hedge positions via derivatives.

 

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