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Bitcoin ETFs and Institutions Are Buying, So Why Is Spot Demand Still Weak? (CryptoQuant)

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Under the current crypto market conditions, Bitcoin exchange-traded funds (ETFs) and some institutions are still in accumulation mode. However, spot demand remains weak. Market research platform CryptoQuant explained why this contraction has persisted in its latest weekly report.

According to the firm’s findings, spot demand has remained in deep contraction because broader market selling pressure outweighs institutional buying. Selling from retail and other market participants is more than offsetting incremental institutional buying; this trend is sustaining the current wave of distribution.

Spot Demand Remains Contracted

In March, ETF 30-day purchases increased sharply to roughly 50,000 bitcoin (BTC). This was the highest the investment products had recorded since October 2025. On the other hand, the business intelligence entity, Strategy, recorded a 30-day accumulation of approximately 44,000 BTC.

Contrarily, the 30-day apparent demand growth hovered at -63,000 BTC by the end of March. This figure reflected persistent selling pressure in the broader market. Spot demand has witnessed sustained contraction since late November 2025, confirming a distribution phase.

Among other market participants, Bitcoin whales have become net distributors, with the one-year change in their holdings reading -188,000 BTC. This cohort of investors accumulated over 200,000 BTC in 2024, but began distributing aggressively from mid-2025, with an increased pace in the last quarter of the year and early 2026.

“The 365-day SMA remains in a declining trend, confirming that this distribution is structural rather than temporary. Historically, sustained negative whale accumulation has coincided with periods of prolonged price weakness, and the current reading suggests selling remains a significant structural headwind,” CryptoQuant explained.

BTC Faces Possible Relief Rally

Unlike whales, mid-tier holders, also known as dolphins, have remained net accumulators, but at a reduced pace. The one-year change in the holdings of these investors has declined by more than 60% from almost 1 million BTC in October 2025 to 429,000 BTC today.

Furthermore, demand from U.S. investors has also weakened in recent weeks, as seen in the Coinbase Premium turning negative again. The metric turned negative after BTC hit its all-time high of $126,000 in early October and has since been unable to sustain a meaningful positive trajectory.

Given the market’s state, CryptoQuant analysts believe BTC may rebound toward $71,500-$81,200 in the short term if macro conditions, especially the US-Iran conflict, improve. In essence, de-escalating geopolitical tensions may serve as a positive catalyst, triggering a relief rally.

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