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Bets on Polymarket Show Bitcoin (BTC) $200K Odds Are Slimmer Than Alien Discovery

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Investor sentiment flipped sharply bearish as Bitcoin (BTC) and major crypto assets succumbed to macroeconomic pressures. Polymarket’s latest tweet has injected a fresh dose of skepticism into the Bitcoin narrative.

The decentralized prediction market humorously noted that the odds of aliens being confirmed this year (6%) slightly surpass Bitcoin hitting $200,000 (5%). Yet beneath the levity, Polymarket’s data highlighted a more serious near-term risk.

Market Panic

Polymarket is seeing a 52% chance that Bitcoin could crash below $100,000 this month. This is in line with the broader market unease, as crypto analyst Ted Pillow recently stated that Bitcoin has already lost its critical $108,000 support level, which has left a minimal buffer until $101,000-$102,000. Pillow stated that a reclaim of $110,000 could trigger a short-term bounce, but otherwise, traders should brace for more pain before relief arrives.

Adding to the cautionary sentiment, Doctor Profit, another popular market analyst, called the current environment the “early phase of the bear market,” which is seeing intense deceptive mini-rallies and sharp downside moves. He predicted the macro bottom would eventually settle between $60,000-$70,000.

According to Doctor Profit, traders should expect increasing selling pressure, with the Fear & Greed Index likely reaching extreme fear levels in the coming days, further backed by the red numbers across the charts. As such, these factors paint a picture of a market navigating a precarious balance.

“Remember, dead cat bounces are the biggest enemy for us shorts. Play them or ignore them, but don’t fight them.”

Defensive Stance

Macro uncertainty continues to weigh heavily on Bitcoin, and Glassnode revealed a major change in sentiment across markets and derivatives. Over the past week, gold has outperformed Bitcoin by more than 20%, reclaiming part of its “store-of-value” appeal. This was indicative of investors’ growing caution toward crypto.

This caution has spilled over into the options market. Short-dated BTC volatility spiked sharply overnight, while front-end options traded around 50 vol as traders paid up for immediate downside protection. BTC skew still behaves like a macro asset, favoring puts – downside protection remains pricier than upside exposure amidst defensive positioning. The market is balanced, as seen with some accounts rolling protection lower, others selling volatility on the dip, and a few selectively buying cheap calls. Overall, the tone is cautious but not one-sided.

Broader volatility metrics confirm this defensiveness. Put-heavy skew, bid wing vols, and strong demand for tail hedges indicate traders remain focused on downside risk. Year-end upside exposure has cooled as downside vol continues to dominate. For those willing to take risks, selling puts or put spreads to finance November topside remains a viable strategy.

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