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ARK Invest Explains How Bitcoin (BTC) Could Shoot Up to $1.5 Million by 2030

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Cathie Wood-led asset manager ARK Invest has revised its Bitcoin price targets for 2030, boosting its “bull case” to $2.4 million from $1.5 million. The “bear” and “base” case scenarios were also raised to $500,000 and $1.2 million, respectively, according to a report by ARK’s David Puell on April 24.

These adjustments follow an earlier revision in February when the predictions were set at $300,000 and $710,000.

2030 Bitcoin Bull Case

The latest forecasts are based on assumptions regarding total addressable markets (TAMs) and Bitcoin adoption.

According to the report, institutional investment plays the largest role in ARK’s bull case, with Bitcoin potentially capturing 6.5% of a projected $200 trillion global investment portfolio market by 2030. This estimate is nearly double gold’s current 3.6% portfolio share.

In more conservative scenarios, ARK assumes 1% to 2.5% adoption, suggesting that the cryptocurrency’s long-term outlook remains strong even with modest institutional interest.

The report highlights the “digital gold” narrative as a key driver of adoption, assuming BTC will compete with gold’s market value without factoring in further growth for the yellow metal.

Bitcoin’s Multi-Faceted Growth Path

In emerging markets, ARK said it sees a significant opportunity for Bitcoin to serve as a hedge against inflation and currency devaluation, thanks to its accessibility for populations with internet access.

Nation-state adoption, currently led by countries like El Salvador and Bhutan, could accelerate, especially with policy endorsements such as US President Donald Trump’s March 2024 executive order supporting a US Bitcoin reserve.

On the corporate side, ARK noted a rising number of publicly traded firms holding the cryptocurrency, inspired by American business intelligence firm Strategy’s well-known investment game plan. As of late 2024, 74 companies had accumulated roughly $55 billion in Bitcoin.

Finally, ARK even went on to point to on-chain financial services, such as the Lightning Network and wrapped Bitcoin applications, as a fast-growing sector that could further boost BTC’s capital appeal.

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