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Staking Surge Tightens Supply, But Negative Sentiment Still Dominates Ethereum

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Ethereum has a “wall of worry” where negative sentiment is meeting staking absorption, reported CryptoQuant on Tuesday.

The Coinbase Premium, a measure of institutional interest, is 230% below its three-month average, while Binance funding rates are deeply negative, signaling caution from US institutions and leveraged traders, it added.

Despite this wall of negativity, ETH’s price has stayed stable over the past week rather than breaking down.

ETH Staking Hits Record 40M

Meanwhile, the Ether supply is tightening as stablecoin balances on Binance are draining while staking inflows have surged 65%, “suggesting long-term holders are locking up supply even as short-term traders de-risk,” it stated.

“While traders are shorting or de-risking on Binance, long-term holders are actively locking supply into the staking contract.”

This combination of deep pessimism and a shrinking liquid/exchange supply is a classic pattern, which historically creates fragile conditions for short traders if selling pressure exhausts.

The analysts concluded that monitoring the reversal of the Coinbase Premium will be the primary signal for a shift in this regime.

The staking figures speak for themselves, with a record amount of ETH off the table and locked up.

ETH staking has hit an all-time high of 40 million, which equates to 33% of the entire supply, according to Ultrasound.Money.

Additionally, the validator exit queue is just 9,248 ETH, while more than 2.9 million ETH are in the entry queue.

Bitmine chair Tom Lee 说过 that crypto is a hyper-volatile asset, and some macro headwinds are weighing on ETH, such as markets seeing a Fed hike, Clarity Act purgatory, AI FOMO, and private credit hurting flows.

However, there are also some tailwinds, including the tokenization megatrend, crypto downstream of AI, money becoming digital/software, and peak pain, he said in a recent interview.

ETH Price Outlook

Despite these tailwinds, ETH prices remain depressed, with the asset dipping to an intraday low of $1,550 on Tuesday.

There was little momentum during Wednesday morning Asian trading, with ETH lifting to $1,585. The longer it stays at current levels, the greater the chances of another leg down, especially if Bitcoin loses support at $58,000.

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