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Bitcoin Fragile at $62K as Iran Closes Strait of Hormuz, US Inflation Hits 3-Year High

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Iran has declared the Strait of Hormuz closed after the US launched additional strikes on Thursday.

The Iranian military command announced the closure of the key waterway, saying any vessel attempting passage will be shot at, according to Reuters.

US Central Command (CENTCOM) reported that it had launched strikes on Iranian military surveillance capabilities, communication systems, and air defense sites across the country.

“The strikes are in response to Iran’s unwarranted and continued aggression. US forces remain vigilant, lethal, and ready,” it stated on Thursday.

The news caused crude oil prices to rise more than 2.5%, with WTI hitting $93.50 per barrel and Brent crude topping $95, further pressuring global energy prices.

CPI Print Adds to Headwinds

The US Consumer Price Index rose to 4.2%, its highest level for three years, on Thursday as inflation continues to climb.

The inflation surge has derailed expectations that the Federal Reserve would cut rates this year, and analysts are now preparing for a rate hike.

“This pretty much cements ‘higher for longer’ with even modest hike risk later this year under new Chair Warsh, keeping real yields elevated, the dollar stronger, and liquidity tighter,” said Andri Fauzan Adziima, research lead at Bitrue Research Institute.

“As a result, BTC feels fragile near $62K, still behaving like high-beta tech rather than a true hedge, while gold faces some near-term pressure despite its longer-term inflation appeal.”

Nevertheless, permabull “Sykodelic” said that long-term holders have “never had this much conviction,” because they now hold the highest ever amount at over 16.5 million BTC despite almost half being underwater.

What this data shows us is that long-term holders have added more than ever, and are happy to hold in loss, he said.

“After several heavy sell-offs on Bitcoin, it’s very likely we have reached the point that it’s only the truly convicted left.”

Crypto Market Outlook

However, the short-term crypto market outlook isn’t good.

While there has been no immediate reaction to the latest escalations in the Middle East, prospects of recovery over the next few months are diminishing.

Total capitalization is at roughly $2.2 trillion, near the lows last seen in October 2024.

比特币 dropped below $61,000 on Wednesday but recovered to top $62,000 during Thursday morning Asian trading. However, the path of least resistance for BTC and its brethren is down.

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