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Bitcoin Rejected At Key Cost Basis Zone—Is $68,000 The Next Support?

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On-chain analytics firm Glassnode has highlighted how the latest Bitcoin rejection came inside a zone containing some historically important cost basis levels.

Bitcoin Could Find Support At -1 SD Of The STH Realized Price Next

In its latest weekly report, Glassnode has talked about a key cost basis zone that Bitcoin retested recently. The region in question involves two major on-chain metrics: the Short-Term Holder Cost Basis and True Market Mean.

The first of these, the Short-Term Holder Cost Basis, measures the average acquisition price of the short-term holders (STHs), investors who purchased their Bitcoin during the past 155 days.

Statistically, the longer investors hold onto their coins, the less likely they become to sell them at any point. Since the STHs represent the new entrants of the market with a relatively low holding time, they can be considered the weak side of the market.

Due to their fickle nature, the STHs tend to be sensitive to retests of their cost basis. In bearish periods, this can show up as panic selling around their break-even mark, while in bullish phases they accumulate more at it.

The other on-chain level of relevance here, the True Market Mean, tracks the cost basis of the active market participants. It aims to provide a break-even mark for the network as a whole.

Currently, the True Market Mean is located at $78,000, while the STH Cost Basis at $79,000. Together, these two levels mark a zone that could act as resistance for the any rallies in this bearish environment.

And indeed, BTC’s recent attempt at recovery hit the brakes around these levels. As Glassnode explains:

This behavior is a textbook pattern in bear markets, where price approaches the breakeven level of the most price-sensitive cohort, the incentive to exit positions overwhelms incoming demand, exhausting upside momentum.

With Bitcoin rejected from this zone, the next major level of interest could be a standard deviation (SD) of the STH Cost Basis. Below is a chart that maps some SDs of the metric for BTC.

Bitcoin Cost Basis Models

From the graph, it’s visible that after rejection at the STH Cost Basis, the next level is the -1 SD at $68,000. In the past, this level has often acted as a point of support. It now remains to be seen whether Bitcoin will make another attempt at the resistance zone of the True Market Mean and the STH Cost Basis or if it will have to fall back to support.

BTC’s earlier rally fizzling out is also visible through the lens of STH Realized Profit. As is visible in the below chart, the STHs ramped up their profit-taking as the BTC price marched up.

Bitcoin STH Realized Profit

BTC 价格

Bitcoin has fallen to the $76,400 mark since its pullback.

Bitcoin Price Chart

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