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Arthur Hayes Explains How Bitcoin Has Outperformed Gold, Nasdaq 100 Since War Started

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Bitcoin has gained 7% since the U.S.-Iran war started on February 28, outpacing gold, which fell 2%, and the Nasdaq 100, which slipped by 0.5%.

This is according to data shared on X on March 12 by BitMEX co-founder Arthur Hayes.

Bitcoin Holds Ground While Traditional Assets Slip

Hayes posted a normalized performance chart comparing Bitcoin, gold, and the Nasdaq 100 from February 28 to the present. All three assets started at the same baseline on that date, which allowed for a clean comparison of relative performance across nearly two weeks.

On the chart, Bitcoin stood out against the traditional safe haven asset and the broad tech index, gaining 7% as energy prices spiked in the background over concerns about supply disruptions.

Nevertheless, BTC’s price action in that period wasn’t exactly calm. When news of the United States’ and Israel’s strike on Iran first emerged, the asset dropped from around $66,000 to just above $63,000 before reversing to $67,000 following the death of Iranian Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei.

Market watchers at the London Crypto Club agreed with Hayes, saying they had noted a similar dynamic playing out when the Israel-Palestine conflict escalated, and argued that BTC covers both the far left and far right tails of the risk distribution, meaning it can react to extreme scenarios in both directions while spending most of its time trading somewhere in the middle alongside equities.

As of today, the number one cryptocurrency is trading near $70,000, with a 24-hour range between $69,000 and $71,000, gaining less than 2% on the day, per data from CoinGecko. However, the picture goes red over seven days, with BTC down 3.5%, although its current price is a 2% bump on the 30-day reading.

Looking at the wider context, on-chain data analysts Arab Chain wrote that the Binance BTC Scarcity Index, which measures how much Bitcoin is immediately available for sale on the platform, recently hit its highest reading since October 2025, at 5.10.

According to them, the reading suggests that supply on the exchange has thinned out, and this condition historically appeared during bullish price phases when holders moved their BTC into cold storage rather than leaving them on exchanges.

Hayes is Watching the Fed

Despite the relative outperformance, Hayes has insisted that he’s still not buying Bitcoin. In a recent interview, the former BitMEX CEO said that he would not put any money into BTC right now, flagging the risk that if the United States’ war with Iran dragged on too long, it could trigger a broad equity sell-off that drags Bitcoin toward $60,000.

Bloomberg Intelligence strategist Mike McGlone offered a different framing, suggesting that oil could go near $120, Bitcoin to $90,000, Copper at $6 per pound, and silver near $100 per ounce, which would represent a collective peak for risk assets in the first quarter of 2026, with rising volatility possibly spilling into equity markets.

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