{"id":42950,"date":"2026-05-11T08:00:58","date_gmt":"2026-05-11T08:00:58","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/cryptd.in\/bitcoin-flashes-signal-with-186-average-one-year-return\/"},"modified":"2026-05-11T08:00:58","modified_gmt":"2026-05-11T08:00:58","slug":"bitcoin-flashes-signal-with-186-average-one-year-return","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/cryptd.in\/ru\/bitcoin-flashes-signal-with-186-average-one-year-return\/","title":{"rendered":"Bitcoin Flashes Signal With 186% Average One-Year Return"},"content":{"rendered":"<p>Bitcoin has triggered another daily Kumo breakout, putting a historically bullish technical signal back in focus. Analyst Josh Olszewicz, who posts as CarpeNoctom, shared a chart on X tracking BTC\u2019s forward performance after every daily Kumo breakout since 2015.<\/p>\n<p>\u201cBTC forward performance of daily kumo breakouts since 2015,\u201d CarpeNoctom <a href=\"https:\/\/x.com\/CarpeNoctom\/status\/2053496384293105803\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener nofollow\">wrote<\/a>, alongside a TradingView chart showing the latest breakout dated May 6, 2026.<\/p>\n<p><img decoding=\"async\" data-recalc-dims=\"1\" class=\"size-full wp-image-895491\" src=\"https:\/\/www.newsbtc.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2026\/05\/HH97-FmWIAEsU89.jpg?resize=1024%2C390\" alt=\"Bitcoin forward performance of daily kumo breakouts since 2015\" width=\"1024\" height=\"390\" loading=\"lazy\" \/><\/p>\n<h2>What This Means For Bitcoin Price<\/h2>\n<p>The historical table attached to the chart shows a notably positive skew across completed signals. After prior daily <a href=\"https:\/\/www.newsbtc.com\/news\/dogecoin\/dogecoin-clean-kumo-rejection\/\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener \">Kumo breakouts<\/a>, Bitcoin was higher one week later in 22 of 26 cases, with an average gain of 6.21% and a median gain of 5.08%. One month out, BTC was positive in 20 of 26 cases, with an average return of 14.05% and a median of 12.00%.<\/p>\n<p>The signal\u2019s stronger historical profile appears over longer windows. Three months after breakout, Bitcoin was higher in 18 of 26 cases, with an average gain of 39.48% and a median of 26.37%. Six months later, BTC was positive in 22 of 26 cases, with an average return of 74.36% and a median of 46.04%. The one-year data is even more striking: across completed samples, Bitcoin was higher in 22 of 25 cases, with an average gain of 186.01% and a median gain of 129.46%.<\/p>\n<p>The largest one-year forward returns came during major bull-market phases. Breakouts on Sept. 4, 2016 and Oct. 7, 2016 preceded one-year gains of 615.08% and 617.09%, respectively. The April 1, 2017 signal was followed by a 525.35% one-year advance, while the April 23, 2020 breakout led to a 581.82% one-year gain. Another October 2020 breakout produced a 237.35% three-month move, a 430.84% six-month move, and a 393.65% one-year return.<\/p>\n<p>The chart also shows that the signal has not been uniformly reliable. Breakouts during weaker or late-cycle conditions produced negative forward returns in several cases. The Aug. 13, 2021 breakout was followed by a 48.89% one-year decline, while the Oct. 1, 2021 signal preceded a 59.90% one-year drop. More recently, the April 22, 2025 breakout showed positive returns over one week, one month, three months, and six months, but was down 16.31% after one year.<\/p>\n<p>The most recent completed signal before the May 2026 breakout, dated Oct. 1, 2025, also remains a cautionary data point. Bitcoin rose 3.98% after one week, but fell 7.60% after one month, 25.46% after three months, and 43.74% after six months. Its one-year return is not yet available in the table.<\/p>\n<p>For traders, the chart frames the Kumo breakout less as a standalone prediction and more as a historically asymmetric trend signal. The median returns suggest the pattern has often appeared near <a href=\"https:\/\/www.newsbtc.com\/analysis\/btc\/bitcoin-price-gains-renewed-strength-80k\/\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener \">meaningful upside continuation<\/a>, but the failed signals cluster around periods where broader market structure deteriorated after the breakout.<\/p>\n<p>At press time, BTC traded at $80,735.<\/p>\n<p><img decoding=\"async\" data-recalc-dims=\"1\" class=\"size-full wp-image-895492\" src=\"https:\/\/www.newsbtc.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2026\/05\/BTCUSDT_2026-05-11_09-35-41.png?resize=1024%2C502\" alt=\"Bitcoin price chart\" width=\"1024\" height=\"502\" loading=\"lazy\" \/><\/p>","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p>Bitcoin has triggered another daily Kumo breakout, putting a historically bullish technical signal back in focus. Analyst Josh Olszewicz, who posts as CarpeNoctom, shared a chart on X tracking BTC\u2019s forward performance after every daily Kumo breakout since 2015. \u201cBTC forward performance of daily kumo breakouts since 2015,\u201d CarpeNoctom wrote, alongside a TradingView chart showing [&hellip;]<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":1,"featured_media":42952,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"footnotes":""},"categories":[1],"tags":[],"class_list":["post-42950","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-feeds"],"yoast_head":"<!-- This site is optimized with the Yoast SEO plugin v27.8 - https:\/\/yoast.com\/product\/yoast-seo-wordpress\/ -->\n<title>Bitcoin Flashes Signal With 186% Average One-Year Return - cryptd.in<\/title>\n<meta name=\"robots\" content=\"index, follow, max-snippet:-1, max-image-preview:large, max-video-preview:-1\" \/>\n<link rel=\"canonical\" href=\"https:\/\/cryptd.in\/ru\/bitcoin-flashes-signal-with-186-average-one-year-return\/\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:locale\" content=\"ru_RU\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:type\" content=\"article\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:title\" content=\"Bitcoin Flashes Signal With 186% Average One-Year Return - cryptd.in\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:description\" content=\"Bitcoin has triggered another daily Kumo breakout, putting a historically bullish technical signal back in focus. Analyst Josh Olszewicz, who posts as CarpeNoctom, shared a chart on X tracking BTC\u2019s forward performance after every daily Kumo breakout since 2015. \u201cBTC forward performance of daily kumo breakouts since 2015,\u201d CarpeNoctom wrote, alongside a TradingView chart showing [&hellip;]\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:url\" content=\"https:\/\/cryptd.in\/ru\/bitcoin-flashes-signal-with-186-average-one-year-return\/\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:site_name\" content=\"cryptd.in\" \/>\n<meta property=\"article:published_time\" content=\"2026-05-11T08:00:58+00:00\" \/>\n<meta name=\"author\" content=\"cryptd.in\" \/>\n<meta name=\"twitter:card\" content=\"summary_large_image\" \/>\n<meta name=\"twitter:label1\" content=\"\u041d\u0430\u043f\u0438\u0441\u0430\u043d\u043e \u0430\u0432\u0442\u043e\u0440\u043e\u043c\" \/>\n\t<meta name=\"twitter:data1\" content=\"cryptd.in\" \/>\n\t<meta name=\"twitter:label2\" content=\"\u041f\u0440\u0438\u043c\u0435\u0440\u043d\u043e\u0435 \u0432\u0440\u0435\u043c\u044f \u0434\u043b\u044f \u0447\u0442\u0435\u043d\u0438\u044f\" \/>\n\t<meta name=\"twitter:data2\" content=\"2 \u043c\u0438\u043d\u0443\u0442\u044b\" \/>\n<script type=\"application\/ld+json\" class=\"yoast-schema-graph\">{\"@context\":\"https:\\\/\\\/schema.org\",\"@graph\":[{\"@type\":\"Article\",\"@id\":\"https:\\\/\\\/cryptd.in\\\/bitcoin-flashes-signal-with-186-average-one-year-return\\\/#article\",\"isPartOf\":{\"@id\":\"https:\\\/\\\/cryptd.in\\\/bitcoin-flashes-signal-with-186-average-one-year-return\\\/\"},\"author\":{\"name\":\"cryptd.in\",\"@id\":\"https:\\\/\\\/cryptd.in\\\/#\\\/schema\\\/person\\\/7973e8183bc6723b86adfe84d5af0ce4\"},\"headline\":\"Bitcoin Flashes Signal With 186% Average One-Year Return\",\"datePublished\":\"2026-05-11T08:00:58+00:00\",\"mainEntityOfPage\":{\"@id\":\"https:\\\/\\\/cryptd.in\\\/bitcoin-flashes-signal-with-186-average-one-year-return\\\/\"},\"wordCount\":420,\"commentCount\":0,\"publisher\":{\"@id\":\"https:\\\/\\\/cryptd.in\\\/#organization\"},\"image\":{\"@id\":\"https:\\\/\\\/cryptd.in\\\/bitcoin-flashes-signal-with-186-average-one-year-return\\\/#primaryimage\"},\"thumbnailUrl\":\"https:\\\/\\\/cryptd.in\\\/wp-content\\\/uploads\\\/2026\\\/05\\\/ChatGPT-Image-11.-Mai-2026-08_32_02-ugFwCx.png\",\"articleSection\":[\"Feeds\"],\"inLanguage\":\"ru-RU\",\"potentialAction\":[{\"@type\":\"CommentAction\",\"name\":\"Comment\",\"target\":[\"https:\\\/\\\/cryptd.in\\\/bitcoin-flashes-signal-with-186-average-one-year-return\\\/#respond\"]}]},{\"@type\":\"WebPage\",\"@id\":\"https:\\\/\\\/cryptd.in\\\/bitcoin-flashes-signal-with-186-average-one-year-return\\\/\",\"url\":\"https:\\\/\\\/cryptd.in\\\/bitcoin-flashes-signal-with-186-average-one-year-return\\\/\",\"name\":\"Bitcoin Flashes Signal With 186% Average One-Year Return - 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