Analyst: Altcoins Down 80-90% Could Outperform Bitcoin

Crypto analyst Credible Crypto believes many of the beaten-down altcoins could offer better risk-reward than Bitcoin (BTC) at current prices.

According to him, projects trading 80% to 90% below their all-time highs may deliver outsized returns if the market turns.

Market Is Building a Base as Attention Moves to Altcoins

Speaking in the July 5 episode of the NinjaTrader podcast, Credible Crypto said that BTC has been in a higher time frame downtrend since hitting its $126,000 peak in October last year. However, he believes the correction is unfolding inside an important support zone rather than breaking the broader bull market.

The analyst pointed to the flagship cryptocurrency’s 2024 consolidation between $50,000 and $75,000, stating that the market has returned to an area where, in the past, buyers have accumulated. And as long as Bitcoin holds above $50,000, he expects the current range to become a base before another higher move.

He also cited on-chain data showing that nearly 80% of the BTC supply is now in the hands of long-term holders, which is the highest level on record. According to him, those investors have historically continued buying through market weakness instead of selling when prices dipped, meaning they tend to gradually absorb supply until prices recover.

That outlook has shaped the trader’s portfolio, with his capital now almost entirely allocated to altcoins after he accumulated Bitcoin from as low as $3,000 and exited his position as the asset approached the $100,000 mark. He said his reason for doing this is that, while there’s every possibility that BTC can climb from its local low near $60,000 to as high as $250,000 over time in his assessment, many altcoins have already dropped 80% to 90% from their peaks, which gives them greater potential if sentiment improves.

“At this point, I think the better bet is on altcoins that are now basically where Bitcoin was when Bitcoin was trading at $3K or $6K or even $15K,” he explained. “Many alts are now down 80 to 90% from their highs. Just as that was the best time to buy Bitcoin, I think that’s now the best time to buy alts.”

Selectivity Is Still Critical Even With the Bullish Outlook

Despite his hope for an eventual uptick in alternative crypto assets, Credible was also quick to point out that not every token deserves a recovery. In his estimation, most cryptocurrencies on the market right now don’t have any meaningful value. As such, he warned against assuming that every chart will revisit previous highs simply because their prices are down.

Instead, he advised investors to focus on projects with working products, active users, and sustainable business models.

“I’m not saying that every single altcoin in the entire market is going to have a massive run because that’s just not realistic,” he clarified. “We have now hundreds of thousands of coins in the market, and I would say 85-90% of them do absolutely nothing and should not really be existing at this point in time.”

In his opinion, the remaining 5 or 10%, even if they don’t make it back to their all-time highs, could still see returns of up to 3 or 4x their present values in a matter of weeks “when the time is right.” In contrast, for Bitcoin to multiply by the same number, which would take it to at least $250,000 from its current level, may require months, if not years.

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