{"id":51124,"date":"2026-07-30T10:51:23","date_gmt":"2026-07-30T10:51:23","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/cryptd.in\/bitcoins-next-bull-run-could-follow-us-midterms-analyst\/"},"modified":"2026-07-30T10:51:23","modified_gmt":"2026-07-30T10:51:23","slug":"bitcoins-next-bull-run-could-follow-us-midterms-analyst","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/cryptd.in\/ko\/bitcoins-next-bull-run-could-follow-us-midterms-analyst\/","title":{"rendered":"Bitcoin\u2019s Next Bull Run Could Follow US Midterms: Analyst"},"content":{"rendered":"

Bitcoin\u2019s market cycles could be more closely linked to the US political calendar than many investors think, according to a new analysis shared by Alphractal founder Joao Wedson.<\/p>\n

In a July 30 post on X, he showed that the flagship cryptocurrency has repeatedly entered bear markets before US midterm elections, only to recover after voters head to the polls.<\/p>\n

Recurring Election Cycle Patterns<\/h2>\n

Wedson compared<\/a> Bitcoin\u2019s price history against US election cycles and found what he described as a recurring sequence. According to his chart, BTC enters a bear market about one year before every US midterm election before starting a longer bull market right after the vote.\u00a0In some cycles, the market bottom formed just days before the election, while in others it came shortly afterward.<\/p>\n

He also noted that presidential elections have produced a different effect, with Bitcoin rallying strongly every time a president won an election before approaching a major cycle top not long after the president was inaugurated.<\/p>\n

\n

\u201cData reveals patterns that narratives often miss,\u201d wrote the analyst.<\/p>\n<\/blockquote>\n

According to Wedson, XRP offers an even more striking example, starting a steep rally on the day Donald Trump won the 2024 election and reaching a local peak on January 20, 2025, the day Trump was inaugurated.<\/p>\n

His observations are quite similar to those made in a Binance Research report from earlier in the year, which found<\/a> that BTC has historically struggled during US midterm election years before posting gains once the political uncertainty faded.<\/p>\n

Per the report, Bitcoin dropped by an average of about 56% during completed midterm cycles since 2014, before returning an average gain of roughly 54% in the year after the elections.<\/p>\n

Wedson had earlier contended<\/a> that while many market participants believed Bitcoin has already established a bottom, \u201ca price recovery alone does not confirm a structural shift.\u201d He said there must be clear signs of capitulation and deleveraging, as well as short-term investors bringing in new capital before such a conclusion can be reached.<\/p>\n

Macro Conditions Could Shape Whether History Repeats<\/h2>\n

There\u2019s still about three months left before Americans go to the polls, and BTC is currently hovering around the $64,000 level, which is nearly 50% below its October 2025 all-time high of over $126,000, with data from CoinGecko showing it dipped about 2.5% in seven days.<\/p>\n

However, it\u2019s still up nearly 8% across the last month, after weathering the latest Federal Reserve decision to leave interest rates unchanged<\/a> at 3.50% to 3.75%.<\/p>\n

\uac8c\uc2dc\ubb3c Bitcoin\u2019s Next Bull Run Could Follow US Midterms: Analyst<\/a> \uc5d0 \ucc98\uc74c \ub4f1\uc7a5 \ud06c\ub9bd\ud1a0\ud3ec\ud14c\uc774\ud1a0<\/a>.<\/p>","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"

Bitcoin\u2019s market cycles could be more closely linked to the US political calendar than many investors think, according to a new analysis shared by Alphractal founder Joao Wedson. In a July 30 post on X, he showed that the flagship cryptocurrency has repeatedly entered bear markets before US midterm elections, only to recover after voters […]<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":1,"featured_media":51126,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"footnotes":""},"categories":[1],"tags":[],"class_list":["post-51124","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-feeds"],"yoast_head":"\nBitcoin\u2019s Next Bull Run Could Follow US Midterms: Analyst - cryptd.in<\/title>\n<meta name=\"robots\" content=\"index, follow, max-snippet:-1, max-image-preview:large, max-video-preview:-1\" \/>\n<link rel=\"canonical\" href=\"https:\/\/cryptd.in\/ko\/bitcoins-next-bull-run-could-follow-us-midterms-analyst\/\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:locale\" content=\"ko_KR\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:type\" content=\"article\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:title\" content=\"Bitcoin\u2019s Next Bull Run Could Follow US Midterms: Analyst - cryptd.in\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:description\" content=\"Bitcoin\u2019s market cycles could be more closely linked to the US political calendar than many investors think, according to a new analysis shared by Alphractal founder Joao Wedson. 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