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Bitcoin Faces Serious Price Compression – What Happened Last Time

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Bitcoin has experienced a tiring price action in recent weeks, with the price struggling to set a clear short-term direction. Investors are beginning to feel impatient as BTC remains stuck in a tight range, showing no decisive breakout. The price was testing crucial supply between $98K and $100K when the market was hit by negative news, adding further uncertainty.

On Friday, the cryptocurrency exchange Bybit suffered a massive hack, with $1.4 billion in ETH stolen. The incident triggered fear among traders, leading to increased volatility across the crypto market. However, Bybit responded quickly, working to reassure investors and prevent further market-wide panic.

As Bitcoin remains range-bound, price compression is becoming extreme, indicating that a major move could be coming soon. Top analyst Big Cheds shared an analysis on X, revealing that Bitcoin is facing its tightest daily Bollinger Bands (BBs) since August 2023, when the price was at $29.5K. Historically, such low volatility phases lead to explosive price movements, making BTC’s next move critical.

Bitcoin Price Action Signals Imminent Breakout

Bitcoin has struggled below the $100K mark since late January, with bulls unable to confirm a recovery rally despite multiple attempts. At the same time, bears have failed to push BTC below key demand levels, keeping the price above $90K. This ongoing battle between supply and demand has created an uncertain short-term outlook, leaving the market waiting for a catalyst to determine the next move.

The lack of directional clarity has led to Bitcoin consolidating in a tight range, signaling an upcoming breakout. Big Cheds’ insights on X reveal that Bitcoin now has its tightest daily Bollinger Bands (BBs) since August 2023, when BTC was trading at $29.5K.The last time BTC saw this level of price compression, the market experienced an aggressive price drop before a long accumulation phase that eventually led to a recovery. 

BTC tightest daily BBs since August of 2023 | Source: Big Cheds on X

With BTC now coiling up for another breakout, traders remain cautious about the direction of the move. If BTC reclaims $100K, an explosive rally into price discovery could follow. However, a breakdown below $94K–$90K could trigger deeper corrections, making the next few days critical for the market.

If history is any indication, this period of low volatility is unlikely to last much longer. The market is preparing for a major move, and traders are closely watching key resistance and support levels for confirmation. With Bitcoin’s supply on exchanges at historically low levels and long-term holders showing resilience, a breakout above $100K could spark a new wave of buying pressure.

BTC Struggles After Volatile Friday

Bitcoin is trading at $96,000 after a highly volatile Friday, where the price spiked to $99,500 before dropping to $94,800 following news of the Bybit hack. This sudden price action unsettled investors, as BTC failed to hold above critical supply levels and experienced a rapid selloff.

BTC testing short-term demand | Source: BTCUSDT chart on TradingView

Now, bulls must defend the $95K level throughout the weekend to prevent further downside. Holding this level would signal strength and allow BTC to push toward the $98K resistance, a key area that needs to be reclaimed for a breakout attempt above $100K.

However, losing the $95K mark could trigger a breakdown into lower demand levels, potentially retesting the $94K or even $90K zones. Market sentiment remains divided, as BTC is showing signs of compression, typically leading to an aggressive move in either direction.

For now, all eyes are on whether Bitcoin can reclaim $98K and sustain momentum, or if bears will push the price into deeper corrections. The weekend could be critical in determining the next major trend, as BTC remains stuck in a tight range between $94K and $100K with increasing volatility.

Featured image from Dall-E, chart from TradingView

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