cryptd.in

암호화폐 친화적인 인재를 위한 대체 링크드인

Bitcoin Bear Market Could Be Shrinking, But Are We Watching History Repeating Itself?

-

by

cryptd.in
in

Bitcoin has fallen back below $70,000 as selling pressure continues to dominate among crypto traders. Notably, there is currently little sign of strong buying demand that could stop further downside and the current structure still leaves room for a Bitcoin price drop below $60,000.

Interestingly, technical analysis shows that the Bitcoin price action is beginning to resemble the pattern it created during the 2022 bear market, with long-term data showing that Bitcoin’s bear cycles have gradually become less severe over time.

Bitcoin’s Bear Market Cycles Are Shrinking

Technical analysis of Bitcoin’s entire price history shows that post-cycle drawdowns have been compressing with almost mechanical precision. This pattern hiding in plain sight was laid out by crypto analyst CrypFlow on the social media platform X.

According to the analyst, each major bear market has produced a smaller percentage decline than the previous one, starting with a 93% collapse after the 2011 top. The 2013 top was followed by an 87% collapse. After the run of 2017, the market gave back 84%. Lastly, when the 2021 bull cycle peaked, the subsequent bear market stopped at a comparatively modest 78% decline.

The argument is that Bitcoin’s growth into a deeper, more liquid market has gradually reduced the kind of downside volatility that defined its early years. Based on that context, the next major bear market low would not need to rival the bloodshed of prior cycles. Therefore, it is safe to assume a worst-case scenario of a 70% drawdown from Bitcoin’s 2025 peak price of $126,080.

Extrapolating that compression forward, a 70% crash from the 2025 cycle top would place Bitcoin somewhere around $37,000. However, the analyst also noted that this price is not a bottom forecast. It is also worth noting that Bitcoin has never closed a monthly candle below the previous cycle top during a bear market. In this case, that previous cycle top is 2021’s peak around $69,000.

Familiar 2022 Bull Trap And Possible Drop To $50,000

Bitcoin’s bear market cycles might be shrinking, but a look at the current price pattern shows it might be playing out just like it did in the 2022 bear market. This was revealed in a setup by a crypto analyst that goes by the name Chiefy on X. 

In that setup, Bitcoin’s current price action was placed side by side with the 2022 bear market, with both periods showing what a textbook sequence of a bear trap followed by a bull trap. 

In September 2022, Bitcoin staged what appeared to be a recovery bounce at $18,000 after a brutal descent. However, this led to a bull trap around $21,000 that lured buyers in before the price action rolled over and carved out fresh lows. 

The script playing out in early 2026, according to this analysis, is identical. The bear trap in this case was Bitcoin’s fall to $60,000 in February and then another bull trap as it pushed to $74,000. If the 2022 analogy holds, that bounce is not a recovery. It is a setup, and the next Bitcoin price low, the analyst warns, is around $50,000.

Bitcoin Price Chart. Source: @0xChiefy On X

Featured image from Unsplash, chart from TradingView

댓글

답글 남기기

이메일 주소는 공개되지 않습니다. 필수 필드는 *로 표시됩니다

최신 피드

인기 카테고리

ko_KR 한국어
ko_KR 한국어 en_US English ro_RO Română et Eesti ja 日本語 ru_RU Русский de_DE Deutsch es_ES Español zh_CN 简体中文 fr_FR Français zh_TW 繁體中文 pt_PT Português it_IT Italiano pl_PL Polski tr_TR Türkçe nl_NL Nederlands id_ID Bahasa Indonesia el Ελληνικά uk Українська bg_BG Български cs_CZ Čeština fi Suomi hu_HU Magyar lv Latviešu valoda lt_LT Lietuvių kalba nb_NO Norsk bokmål sk_SK Slovenčina sl_SI Slovenščina sv_SE Svenska

웹사이트 검색

인기 스토리

태그

#AlexeyPertsev (1) #BidenCryptoBan (1) #BidenElection (1) #BinanceVsCoinbase (1) #B비트코인 (425) #BitcoinETF (3) #B비트코인기초 (1) #B비트코인 취급 (1) #B비트코인가격 (5) #B비트코인가격수준 (1) #B비트코인펌프 (1) #B비트코인예치 (1) #B비트코인서지 (1) #BitcoinTop (1) #Bitfinex (1) #B비트 단위 (1) #브레이스브리지캐피털 (1) #BRC20토큰 (1) #BTC취득 (1) #B울리스틱 예측 (1) #BullishSentiment (1) #C중국광업 (1) #CPIP리뷰 (1) #CryptoAsset (2) #CryptoBattle (1) #CryptoBoom (1) #CryptoExpert (1) #CryptoInsights (1) #CryptoMania (1) #CryptoMarket (4) #CryptoPrediction (1) #CryptoPredictions (1) #CryptoRegulation (2) #CryptoTakeoff (1) #CryptoTiming (1) #CryptoTips (1) #CryptoTreasury (1) #CryptoUncertainty (1) #DerivativeJump (1) #Dogecoin (73) #DogecoinGains (1) #DogecoinVolume (1) #DutchCourt (2) #ECommerce (1) 1TP5테엘살바도르비트코인 (1) 1TP5테더리움 (69) 1TP5테더리움통증 (1) 1TP5테더리움가격 (1) 1TP5전문가 의견 (1) #FedRateCut (1) #FiatCurrency (1) #FinancialImpact (1) #FinancialPrivacy (1) #FirmShutdown (1) #FrozenAccounts (1) #IllicitFunds (1) #인플레이션데이터 (1) #투자 (1) #투자손실 (1) #일본기업 (1) #LegalAction (1) #LegalImpact (1) #법률 (1) #라이트닝 네트워크 (1) 1TP5시장분석 (3) 1TP5시장 모니터링 (1) 1TP5시장 예측 (1) 1TP5시장 예측 (1) #MarketProjection (1) 1TP5마켓지원 (1) 1TP5시장변동성 (1) #M결혼 (1) #MemeCoin (5) #MemeCoins (2) #M광부수익성 (1) #MoneyLaundering (2) #MtGox (4) 1TP5북한암호화 (1) 1TP5노보그라츠예측 (1) #P가격 마일스톤 (1) #P가격 예측 (2) #P가격 질문 (1) #PriceSurge (1) #P형량 (1) #QuantAnalysis (1) 1TP5규제압력 (1) #SEC안티크립토 (1) #ShibaInu (5) #SocialBuzz (1) 1TP5기술분석 (1) #Toncoin (3) #TornadoCash (3) #TornadoCashDev (1) 1TP5토네이도캐시개발자 (1) #UKCrypto (1) #업사이드 잠재력 (1) #USCongress (1) #와이오밍랜드 (1) #XRP가격 (1) #XRP업스윙 (1)

유용한 링크

유용하다고 생각되어 공유하고 싶은 링크.